Theoretical Guidance on Evacuation Decisions after a Big Nuclear Accident under the Assumption That Evacuation Is Desirable

Abstract

The development of nuclear power is a major measure for implementing energy-saving and emission reduction strategies all over the world. For a long time, the hazards of nuclear accidents have been obstacles to the development of nuclear power. Temporary evacuation is the fastest and most effective emergency measure to ensure the safety of residents in a short period of time after a nuclear accident. Numerous nuclear accident emergency management personnel make judgments based on personal work experience and subjective awareness when formulating a nuclear accident emergency evacuation plan. How to make a scientific and reasonable decision on the emergency evacuation of nuclear accidents in the shortest time is a common problem faced by many emergency departments when a nuclear accident occurs. In a complex and ever-changing radiation environment, how to maximize the use of limited information and make decisions quickly in an uncertain environment is a core issue that effectively reduces the risk of nuclear accidents. This paper constructs a set of assessment system of nuclear accident emergency evacuation plan selection based on the characteristics of nuclear accident emergencies under uncertain environmental conditions. It uses triangular fuzzy language to describe nuclear accident emergency evacuation decision plans and the weighting of relevant factors. Additionally, the K-means clustering method is used to calculate the weight of experts, which reduces the influence of subjective factors considered by decision makers. Finally, a decision model for emergency evacuation of nuclear accidents is constructed based on the TOPSIS decision model.

Upward Voice: Participative Decision Making, Trust in Leadership and Safety Climate Matter

“…The scale items were "I trust my immediate supervisor" and "I trust the management team". The response scale ranged from "Completely disagree" (1) to "Completely agree" (5).…”

“…However, only high safety standards can assure there is a positive nuclear energy contribution towards decarbonizing the power sector in a sustainable manner [5]. Despite accidents being rare in the nuclear industry, the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in 2011 showed that safety can never be taken for granted [1,6].…”

“…Along these lines, the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency [2] also acknowledges that nuclear energy plays a relevant role alongside renewable technologies in the transition to a low-carbon energy future that matches the increasing global electricity demand over the coming decades. However, only high safety standards can assure there is a positive nuclear energy contribution towards decarbonizing the power sector in a sustainable manner [5]. Despite accidents being rare in the nuclear industry, the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in 2011 showed that safety can never be taken for granted [1,6].…”

Evaluation of Evacuation Strategies According to the Travel Demand: The Case of Nuclear Research Reactor HANARO’s EPZ

“…Urbanik II emphasized that the purpose of the evacuation time estimate was to reduce the radiation exposure of the residents in the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) during an emergency situation and to provide decision-makers with information on whether the evacuation strategies are effective [5]. Deng et al provided guidance for the fastest evacuation after nuclear accidents and emphasized the importance of the evacuation strategy and speed of decision-making [6]. Generally, the measure of effectiveness (MOE) to evaluate the evacuation strategies' adequacy is based on how much evacuation time is reduced.…”