The WHO estimates of excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

The World Health Organization has a mandate to compile and disseminate statistics on mortality, and we have been tracking the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic since the beginning of 20201. Reported statistics on COVID-19 mortality are problematic for many countries owing to variations in testing access, differential diagnostic capacity and inconsistent certification of COVID-19 as cause of death. Beyond what is directly attributable to it, the pandemic has caused extensive collateral damage that has led to losses of lives and livelihoods. Here we report a comprehensive and consistent measurement of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic by estimating excess deaths, by month, for 2020 and 2021. We predict the pandemic period all-cause deaths in locations lacking complete reported data using an overdispersed Poisson count framework that applies Bayesian inference techniques to quantify uncertainty. We estimate 14.83 million excess deaths globally, 2.74 times more deaths than the 5.42 million reported as due to COVID-19 for the period. There are wide variations in the excess death estimates across the six World Health Organization regions. We describe the data and methods used to generate these estimates and highlight the need for better reporting where gaps persist. We discuss various summary measures, and the hazards of ranking countries’ epidemic responses.

Estimates of COVID-19 deaths in Mainland China after abandoning zero COVID policy

“…E.g. in 2020-2021, WHO estimates 6,288 excess deaths in South Korea (32), Economist estimates 7,558 excess deaths (33), while our calculations (using 2017-2019 as baseline) shows a death deficit (34).…”

“…E.g. in 2020-2021, WHO estimates 6,288 excess deaths in South Korea (36), Economist estimates 7,558 excess deaths (37), while our calculations (using 2017-2019 as baseline) shows a death deficit (38). Economist projects 54,352 excess deaths as of November 14, 2022 (37), while our calculations based on age-stratified data (available until summer 2022) and using 2017-2019 as a baseline suggest a persistent death deficit until the summer of 2022.…”

Bounce Forward Better: Geriatric and Gerontological Research in the Post-pandemic Future

“…Furthermore, a recent study by the World Health Organization showed that the number of excess deaths during the COVID-19 period might be largely underestimated, with 2.74-fold more cases than what has been reported. 13) To deliver critical information during the pandemic and facilitate scientific advancements against COVID-19, most academic journals have conducted fast-track peer-reviewing and prioritized the publication of articles on the disease. Consequently, the volume of articles in the field has been massive and the impact factors of major medical journals have been affected by substantial changes from such an irregular pattern of publication.…”

“…Furthermore, a recent study by the World Health Organization showed that the number of excess deaths during the COVID-19 period might be largely underestimated, with 2.74-fold more cases than what has been reported. 13 )…”

Global estimates of excess deaths from COVID-19

“…Figure 1 | Country income level and estimated excess deaths from COVID-19. Msemburi et al1 estimated the number of excess deaths that occurred in every country in the world in 2020 and 2021. Here, countries are grouped according to their income level (high, upper middle and so on).…”