The Weather Hazards Associated with the US-Bangla Aircraft Accident at the Tribhuvan International Airport, Nepal

Abstract

Safe flights over the Tribhuvan International Airport (TIA), Kathmandu, Nepal, remain a considerable challenge. Since the airport opened, there have been 13 aircraft accidents during landings and takeoffs that have claimed 392 lives. A detailed understanding and dependable forecast of atmospheric conditions that may develop over the complex terrain of the midhills of central Nepal Himalaya are yet to be achieved. The present study discusses the near-surface atmospheric conditions possibly associated with the most recent fatal crash at TIA on 12 March 2018 as revealed by the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) Model routine forecast. At the time of the accident, two prominent gap winds were converging in the valley, thereby, forming a crosswind and a mix of strong up- and downdrafts over the airfield. As a result, the near-surface atmosphere was significantly turbulent. Unexpected encounters with such turbulent winds are a likely contributor to the fatal crash. This indicates that the knowledge of near-surface atmospheric conditions, critically needed by pilots in advance, for safe operations over the airfield may be generated with WRF-ARW forecasts.

Air Pollution Airshed Map of the Chaurjahari Model City, Rukum West, Karnali, Nepal

“…The WRF modeling system is one of the successful meteorological systems that has been extensively implemented over the Himalayan complex terrain for various studies such as real-time weather prediction, reconstruction of weather systems [17,18,19], air pollution dispersion modeling [8,20], wind energy assessment [21], flight safety [22,23,24,25], etc. Considering these successful applications of the WRF over the Himalayan complex terrain, this particular meteorological model can also be implemented for the study of the Chaurjahari area.…”

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“…Sharman et al in their study, stated that turbulence, which can reach fatal effects on aircraft, constitutes 65% of aircraft accidents caused by weather conditions (Sharman et al , 2006). Regmi et al , who examined the aircraft crashes from the day it opened at Tribhuvan airport in Nepal until 2018, stated that the accidents were mostly caused by crosswinds and turbulence (Regmi et al , 2020). Keller et al , who investigated the Boeing 737 jet plane crash that occurred at Denver International Airport on December 20, 2018, stated that the plane crash was caused by a significant crosswind (Keller et al , 2015).…”