The Weather Factor and Variability in China's Grain Supply

Climate change impacts on crop yield: Evidence from China

“…In China, agricultural production is potentially endangered by climate change and associated extreme climate events (Piao et al, 2010;Wang, 2009). Though localized impacts may be masked in national data (Carter and Zhang, 1998;Zhang and Huang, 2012), Chinese agricultural production has increased during the past 30 years despite rising average temperature and declining land area sown. Presuming that higher temperatures negatively affect crop production, this historical observation suggests that factors other than climate change have positive impacts.…”

“…Several studies have made efforts to isolate impact of climate change on crop yield in China by statistical approach (e.g., Carter and Zhang, 1998;Peng et al, 2004;You et al, 2009;Zhou and Turvey, 2014). These interregional studies on the basis of data at either site or regional scale (Shi et al, 2013) do not treat climatic variables as pure random terms since regional differences in these variables are known by local farmers to a reasonable extent (Demir and Mahmud, 2002).…”

Dilemmas of China's Growth in the 21st Century

“…Two recent studies by Carter and Zhang (1998) and Lindert (1999) incorporate climate and biophysical information as well as the conventional inputs. Carter and Zhang estimate a Cobb-Douglas model for grain productivity for the five major grain-producing regions in China with aridity indices using data between 1980-90.…”

Emulating maize yields from global gridded crop models using statistical estimates

“…Statistical models, usually in the form of regression analysis, on the other hand, use observed data to estimate the impact of weather on crop yields and are usually based on data aggregated by month (Carter and Zhang, 1998), growth stage (Dixon et al, 1994) or year (Blanc, 2012;Schlenker and Lobell, 2010). Regression analyses usually consider the effect of temperature and precipitation on crop yields (Lobell and Field, 2007;Nicholls, 1997;Corobov, 2002) and its derived composites, such as growing degree days (GDD) (Lobell et al, 2011), evapotranspiration (Blanc, 2012), and drought indices (Lobell et al, 2014;Blanc, 2012;Carter and Zhang, 1998).…”

“…Regression analyses usually consider the effect of temperature and precipitation on crop yields (Lobell and Field, 2007;Nicholls, 1997;Corobov, 2002) and its derived composites, such as growing degree days (GDD) (Lobell et al, 2011), evapotranspiration (Blanc, 2012), and drought indices (Lobell et al, 2014;Blanc, 2012;Carter and Zhang, 1998). Some studies control for alternative effects, such as cloud cover (You et al, 2009); sources of water availability, such as proximity to streams (Blanc and Strobl, 2014) and dams (Strobl and Strobl, 2010;Blanc and Strobl, 2013); management strategies, such as fertilizer application (Cuculeanu et al, 1999) or changes in planting dates (Alexandrov and Hoogenboom, 2000); and technological trends (Lobell and Field, 2007).…”