The Way Toward Growth: A Time-series Factor Decomposition of Socioeconomic Impulses and Urbanization Trends in a Pre-crisis European Region

Giacalone, Massimiliano; Turco, Rosario; Mosconi, Enrico Maria; Alaimo, Leonardo Salvatore; Salvati, Luca

doi:10.1007/s11205-023-03124-7

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 90 publications

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“…The period of 1990s-2001 was characterized by a slow urban expansion, along the RD Congo-Zambia border, due to political conflicts, leading to economic and social instability. Moreover, political tensions can disrupt commercial activities and hinder economic growth, thereby limiting employment opportunities and urban development [60]. Additionally, during conflict periods, priorities often shift towards addressing immediate security and political stability issues, relegating urbanization projects to the background [61].…”

Section: Urban Expansion Intensity and Associated Landscape Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding of Spatial Urban Growth Pattern and Associated Landscape Dynamics in Congolese Mining Cities Bordering Zambia from 1990 to 2023

Useni Sikuzani,

Mpanda Mukenza,

Malaisse

et al. 2024

Preprint

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This study investigates the spatial urban growth patterns of cities along the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia border, a region of significant economic importance characterized by cross-border trade. This activity has led to rapid, but unplanned urban growth. The objective is to quantify the spatial expansion of Congolese cities (Kipushi, Kasumbalesa, Mokambo, and Sakania) bordering Zambia and to evaluate associated landscape changes. The methodology integrates Landsat images from 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2023, coupled with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and landscape ecology analysis tools. The results reveal substantial landscape transformations in the border cities between 1990 and 2023. These changes are primarily driven by rapid urban expansion, particularly pronounced in Kasumbalesa. Between 1990 and 2023, forest cover declined from 70% to less than 15% in Kipushi, from 80% to 10% in Kasumbalesa, from 90% to 30% in Mokambo, and from 80% to 15% in Sakania. This forest cover loss is accompanied by an increase in landscape element diversity, as indicated by the Shannon diversity index, except in Kipushi, suggesting a transition towards more heterogeneous landscapes. In these border cities, landscape dynamics are also characterized by the expansion of agriculture and savannas, highlighted by an increase in the disturbance index. Spatial pattern changes analysis shows that built-up areas, agriculture, and savannas exhibit trends of patch creation or aggregation, while forests are undergoing processes of dissection and patch attrition. Congolese cities bordering Zambia are undergoing substantial spatial changes propelled by intricate interactions between economic, demographic, and infrastructural factors. Our results highlight the necessity for sustainable development strategies to address challenges such as urban sprawl, deforestation, and fostering cross-border cooperation in border regions.

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Section: Urban Expansion Intensity and Associated Landscape Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding of Spatial Urban Growth Pattern and Associated Landscape Dynamics in Congolese Mining Cities Bordering Zambia from 1990 to 2023

Useni Sikuzani,

Mpanda Mukenza,

Malaisse

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Unraveling population trends in Italy (1921–2021) with spatial econometrics

Alaimo,

Ciaschini,

Mariani

et al. 2023

Sci Rep

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Testing density-dependence and path-dependence in long-term population dynamics under differentiated local contexts contributes to delineate the changing role of socioeconomic forces at the base of regional disparities. Despite a millenary settlement history, such issue has been rarely investigated in Europe, and especially in highly divided countries such as those in the Mediterranean region. Using econometric modeling to manage spatial heterogeneity, our study verifies the role of selected drivers of population growth at ten times between 1921 and 2021 in more than 8000 Italian municipalities verifying density-dependent and path-dependent dynamics. Results of global and quantile (spatial) regressions highlight a differential impact of density and (lagged) population growth on demographic dynamics along the urban cycle in Italy. Being weakly significant in the inter-war period (1921–1951), econometric models totalized a high goodness-of-fit in correspondence with compact urbanization (1951–1981). Model’s fit declined in the following decades (1981–2021) reflecting suburbanization and counter-urbanization. Density-dependence and path-dependence were found significant and, respectively, positive or negative, with compact urbanization, and much less intense with suburbanization and counter-urbanization. A spatial econometric investigation of density-dependent and path-dependent mechanisms of population dynamics provided an original explanation of metropolitan cycles, delineating the evolution of socioeconomic (local) systems along the urban-rural gradient.

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The Way Toward Growth: A Time-series Factor Decomposition of Socioeconomic Impulses and Urbanization Trends in a Pre-crisis European Region

Cited by 2 publications

References 90 publications

Understanding of Spatial Urban Growth Pattern and Associated Landscape Dynamics in Congolese Mining Cities Bordering Zambia from 1990 to 2023

Understanding of Spatial Urban Growth Pattern and Associated Landscape Dynamics in Congolese Mining Cities Bordering Zambia from 1990 to 2023

Unraveling population trends in Italy (1921–2021) with spatial econometrics

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