The War in Ukraine, Food Security and the Role for Europe

Abstract

SummaryFood‐security implications of the war in Ukraine are exacerbated by adverse weather events, spillover effects from the distortion of energy and fertiliser markets, and domestic policies that countries around the world have implemented in pursuit of food security. Estimates suggest that the cumulative effect of these channels in terms of restricting agricultural and food trade is in the order of over 10 times larger, and their cumulative effect on global food supply is on average three times more substantial than the direct agricultural supply disruptions in Ukraine. The latter, however, disproportionally impacts low‐income countries that are particularly vulnerable to food supply shortages and price increases. In the case of the EU, although overall food availability is not at stake, food affordability for low‐income households is a concern, especially when combined with rising prices of other essential goods, such as energy and transportation. To ensure the resilience of domestic and global food systems, the EU and its Member States should extend a set of already implemented policies, including better‐targeted support for the low‐income households in the region, implementation of trade facilitation measures via international cooperation, and support for agricultural production in the most vulnerable countries, and should also facilitate the restoration of Ukraine's lost agricultural assets.

Countries’ vulnerability to food supply disruptions caused by the Russia–Ukraine war from a trade dependency perspective

“…Specifically, Turkey and Egypt were responsible for more than 90% of wheat or meslin flour and sunflower oil (crude or refined) exports to Syria, Iraq, and Eritrea in 2020 (Table S4 ) 6 . However, Turkey and Egypt together reduced their agricultural and food exports by over US$4 billion in pursuit of domestic food security during 2022 20 . Given that over 52% of the calorie intake in Iraq and Syria comes from wheat, corn, and sunflower oil products (Fig.…”

“…The impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on food security has been studied from several perspectives and approaches. Much attention has been focused on the consequences of nutritional insecurity 10 – 14 ; increasing prices for global energy, fertilizers, and food 11 , 12 , 14 – 19 ; changes in food imports 16 and exports 20 ; and welfare losses 16 , 18 at a regional or global scale, or both. For example, Alexander et al 12 projected that higher energy prices combined with food export restrictions from Russia and Ukraine could increase food costs by 60–100% in 2023 from 2021 levels, leading to undernourishment for 61–107 million people in 2023 and net annual additional deaths of 0.42–1.01 million people if the associated dietary patterns are maintained.…”

“…These studies have also revealed that food security is most vulnerable in low-income countries and countries heavily dependent on wheat imports from Ukraine. The major approaches used in the abovementioned studies (i.e., the land system modular model 12 , multi-regional input–output model 10 , and computable general equilibrium model 11 , 16 , 18 , 20 ) allow for a good understanding of the dynamic changes in human health, macro-economics, and global trade caused by the war, as well as of the inter-country and inter-sectoral impacts of the war through food supply chains and the relative long-term impacts on food security. However, the geographic coverage and agricultural sector breakdown in these studies have been limited.…”

Global-to-local-to-global interactions and climate change

“…As a result, it is estimated that when combined with other stressors, including climate change, the war in Ukraine could increase acute hunger by up to 323 million people worldwide (WFP 2022b). Furthermore, a recent study by Chepeliev et al (2023) shows that the food security implications of interacting factors discussed above (rising energy prices, sanctions, trade restrictions and climate impacts) are much more substantial than the direct impacts of disrupted agricultural exports from Ukraine, thus stressing on the importance of accounting for GLG linkages in this particular example.…”

Why is Russia Restricting its Fertiliser and Crop Exports?

“…The most direct way the war has upset world agricultural trade is Russia's initial blockade of Ukraine's exports out of the Black Sea, given that before the invasion about 90 per cent of Ukraine's agricultural outflows came out of that body of water. Another war‐related consequence is that because of the uncertainty about world markets and immediate jump in prices that the war generated, many countries restricted their agricultural exports, which pushed world prices up even more (Chepeliev et al ., 2023). Western countries also imposed economic sanctions against Russia, intended to cut the country off from world trade and investment.…”