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ABSTRACTThe 'wage curve' literature consistently finds a negative relationship between regional unemployment rates and regional wages; the most widely accepted explanations are efficiency wage and labour turnover costs theories in which the unemployment rate is a measure of job competition. Since it fails to correctly measure labour supply and demand, however, the unemployment rate is likely to be an imprecise measure of job competition. This paper estimates wage curves using different measures of job competition. The results suggest that efficiency wage and labour turnover costs theories do not seem to offer satisfactory explanations of the wage curve phenomenon.
NON-TECHNICAL SUMMARYA large empirical literature estimates the relationship between the local unemployment rate and local wages, the so-called 'wage curve'. This literature, mostly initiated with the book by Blanchflower and Oswald (1994), generally finds that a doubling of the unemployment rate is associated to a roughly ten percent decrease in wages.Despite the large empirical evidence on the existence of such a negative relationship between unemployment and wages, there is still lack of theoretical models explaining the wage curve phenomenon. One of the fundamental hypotheses of the theoretical explanations of the wage curve is that the local unemployment is a measure of job competition, of how difficult it is for workers to find a (new) job if they quit or are fired. Nevertheless, there are various reasons why the local unemployment rate is likely to be an imprecise measure of job competition. First, it assumes that workers with different levels of education and experience are close substitutes; second it neglects the possibility that a number of workers might hold a temporary job or might be dissatisfied with their current job, and might therefore engage in on-the-job search. This paper uses data from the UK Labour Force Survey (LFS) over the period 1997-2005 to test whether the negative relationship between local wages and the measure of job competition is robust to changes in the way job competition is measured. Measures based only on the regional unemployment rate are compared to more complete measures accounting for on-the-job search, changes in labour demand, as well as accessibility of the local labour market. The results are clearly supportive of a wage curve only when job competition is measured by the unemployment rate. When job competition is measure...