The “vanishing” of the disjunction effect by sensible procrastination

Bagassi, Maria; Macchi, Laura

doi:10.1007/s11299-006-0024-0

Cited by 6 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 15 publications

(7 reference statements)

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“…the presence of quantum-conceptual thought, to the disjunction of concepts with respect to the traditional disjunction effect, for example the Hawaii problem, so as to understand the violation of the Sure-Thing Principle? There is a set of experiments [14], although performed with a different goal from ours, which confirm that our explanation for concepts and their disjunction is also valid for the traditional disjunction effect. The experiments consider the Hawaii problem to show that the disjunction effect does not depend on the presence of uncertainty (pass or fail the exam) but on the introduction into the text-problem of a non-relevant goal [14].…”

Section: Concept Combinations the Disjunction Effect And Conceptual supporting

confidence: 82%

“…There is a set of experiments [14], although performed with a different goal from ours, which confirm that our explanation for concepts and their disjunction is also valid for the traditional disjunction effect. The experiments consider the Hawaii problem to show that the disjunction effect does not depend on the presence of uncertainty (pass or fail the exam) but on the introduction into the text-problem of a non-relevant goal [14]. This indicates in a very explicit way that it is the overall conceptual landscape that gives form to the disjunction effect.…”

Section: Concept Combinations the Disjunction Effect And Conceptual supporting

confidence: 82%

“…that one needs to 'pay to know', which is independent of the uncertainty condition. In this sense, their hypothesis is that the choice of option z occurs as a consequence of the construction of the discourse problem itself [14]. Four experiments were performed in which various modifications with respect to option z were considered, ranging from (1) eliminating from the text and option z any connection between the 'knowledge of the outcome' and the 'decision'; (2) eliminating option z, limiting the decision to x ('buy') or y ('not buy'); (3) making option z more attractive; (4) render the procrastination option z more onerous.…”

Section: Concept Combinations the Disjunction Effect And Conceptual mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

A Quantum-Conceptual Explanation of Violations of Expected Utility in Economics

Aerts¹,

Broekaert²,

Czachor³

et al. 2011

Quantum Interaction

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The expected utility hypothesis is one of the building blocks of classical economic theory and founded on Savage's Sure-Thing Principle. It has been put forward, e.g. by situations such as the Allais and Ellsberg paradoxes, that real-life situations can violate Savage's Sure-Thing Principle and hence also expected utility. We analyze how this violation is connected to the presence of the 'disjunction effect' of decision theory and use our earlier study of this effect in concept theory to put forward an explanation of the violation of Savage's Sure-Thing Principle, namely the presence of 'quantum conceptual thought' next to 'classical logical thought' within a double layer structure of human thought during the decision process. Quantum conceptual thought can be modeled mathematically by the quantum mechanical formalism, which we illustrate by modeling the Hawaii problem situation, a well-known example of the disjunction effect, and we show how the dynamics in the Hawaii problem situation is generated by the whole conceptual landscape surrounding the decision situation.

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Section: Concept Combinations the Disjunction Effect And Conceptual supporting

confidence: 82%

Section: Concept Combinations the Disjunction Effect And Conceptual supporting

confidence: 82%

Section: Concept Combinations the Disjunction Effect And Conceptual mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

A Quantum-Conceptual Explanation of Violations of Expected Utility in Economics

Aerts¹,

Broekaert²,

Czachor³

et al. 2011

Quantum Interaction

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show abstract

“…If the type of explanation for the effect that we put forward here, namely that the whole conceptual landscape plays a role, is correct, most probably a Fock space model will be needed to complement the single Hilbert space model if different experimental data pertaining to the same disjunction effect situation are attempted to be modeled. There are some recent experiments on the disjunction effect that point in this direction (Bagassi & Macchi, 2007), and we have analyzed them in some detail in Aerts and D'Hooghe (2009).…”

Section: Application To Decision Theory Economics and Other Domainsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantum structure in cognition

Aerts

2009

Journal of Mathematical Psychology

303

551

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The broader scope of our investigations is the search for the way in which concepts and their combinations carry and influence meaning and what this implies for human thought. More specifically, we examine the use of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics as a modeling instrument and propose a general mathematical modeling scheme for the combinations of concepts. We point out that quantum mechanical principles, such as superposition and interference, are at the origin of specific effects in cognition related to concept combinations, such as the guppy effect and the overextension and underextension of membership weights of items. We work out a concrete quantum mechanical model for a large set of experimental data of membership weights with overextension and underextension of items with respect to the conjunction and disjunction of pairs of concepts, and show that no classical model is possible for these data. We put forward an explanation by linking the presence of quantum aspects that model concept combinations to the basic process of concept formation. We investigate the implications of our quantum modeling scheme for the structure of human thought, and show the presence of a two-layer structure consisting of a classical logical layer and a quantum conceptual layer. We consider connections between our findings and phenomena such as the disjunction effect and the conjunction fallacy in decision theory, violations of the sure thing principle, and the Allais and Elsberg paradoxes in economics.

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“…The experimental data that we consider as our elements of study are the results of measurements of membership weights of items with respect to pairs of concepts and their disjunction [57]. In an analogous way like conjunction deviations from classicality in concept theories relate to the conjunction fallacy in decision theory, there is the well studied disjunction effect in decision theory which corresponds to these disjunction deviations in concept theories [58,59,60,61,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,69]. In economics too, an effect similar to this disjunction effect was observed, more specifically in situations where Savage's Sure-Thing Principle [70], a fundamental hypothesis of classical economic theory, is violated.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantum Experimental Data in Psychology and Economics

Aerts¹,

D’Hooghe²,

Haven

2010

Int J Theor Phys

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We prove a theorem which shows that a collection of experimental data of probabilistic weights related to decisions with respect to situations and their disjunction cannot be modeled within a classical probabilistic weight structure in case the experimental data contain the effect referred to as the 'disjunction effect' in psychology. We identify different experimental situations in psychology, more specifically in concept theory and in decision theory, and in economics (namely situations where Savage's Sure-Thing Principle is violated) where the disjunction effect appears and we point out the common nature of the effect. We analyze how our theorem constitutes a no-go theorem for classical probabilistic weight structures for common experimental data when the disjunction effect is affecting the values of these data. We put forward a simple geometric criterion that reveals the non classicality of the considered probabilistic weights and we illustrate our geometrical criterion by means of experimentally measured membership weights of items with respect to pairs of concepts and their disjunctions. The violation of the classical probabilistic weight structure is very analogous to the violation of the well-known Bell inequalities studied in quantum mechanics. The no-go theorem we prove in the present article with respect to the collection of experimental data we consider has a status analogous to the well known no-go theorems for hidden variable theories in quantum mechanics with respect to experimental data obtained in quantum laboratories. Our analysis puts forward a strong argument in favor of the validity of using the quantum formalism for modeling the considered psychological experimental data as considered in this paper.

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The “vanishing” of the disjunction effect by sensible procrastination

Abstract: Pragmatics, Disjunction effect, Decision making under uncertainty,

Cited by 6 publications

References 15 publications

A Quantum-Conceptual Explanation of Violations of Expected Utility in Economics

A Quantum-Conceptual Explanation of Violations of Expected Utility in Economics

Quantum structure in cognition

Quantum Experimental Data in Psychology and Economics

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