The Value of a Baseline Caries Risk Assessment Model in the Primary Dentition for the Prediction of Caries Incidence in the Permanent Dentition

Abstract

To establish a reliable screening method for caries prediction and to identify predominant risk factors, this study tested whether a cross–sectional caries risk model assessed at age 7 could be used to predict future caries onset in the permanent first molars at age 10 in 3,303 children born in 1989. As prediction variables, assessing the believed risk, baseline data at age 7 on oral health status, oral hygiene level, oral health behaviour and sociodemographic factors were used. The real risk, based on data collected for the first permanent molars during the follow–up, was assessed by different approaches. Cumulative incidence during the 3–year observation period was 31.6%, ranging from 22.4% in the believed low–risk group to 43.2% in the believed high–risk group. A stepwise logistic regression analysis was performed with net caries increment as outcome measure, adjusted for the real time at risk, using eruption times. Baseline dmfs and occlusal and buccal plaque indices were highly significant for having a high caries increment in permanent first molars with respective odds ratios of 1.07, 1.43 and 1.35. Brushing less than once a day and the daily use of sugar–containing drinks between meals were confirmed as risk factors (OR 2.43 and 1.25, respectively). The logistic regression analysis provided a sensitivity of 59–66% and a specificity of 65.7–72.8%, which indicates that the risk marker did not have an important predictive power. None of the socio–demographic and behavioural variables had enough predictive power at community level to be useful for identifying caries susceptible children. Even the power of dmfs at baseline must be considered modest.

The Associated Factors of Permanent First Molar Caries in 7-9 Years Old Children

“…Vanobbergena et al found that occlusal and buccal plaque indices were highly significant for having a high caries increment in permanent first molars. (8) Basir et al believed that high oral hygiene index cannot increase the rate of permanent first molar caries. (12) However, reports suggest that dental plaque is a location for accumulation of cariogenic microorganisms and so we cannot ignore its role in dental caries.…”

“…(7) According to J. Vanobbergen et al none of the socio-demographic and behavioral variables had enough predictive power at community level to be useful in identifying caries susceptible children. (8) The aim of this study was to find whether dmft, oral hygiene and dietary habits of children with caries in permanent first molars are different from those with healthy first molars?…”

Caries Incidence in School Children Included in a Caries Preventive Program: A Longitudinal Study

“…The preventive measures include: diet and plaque control (mechanical and chemical methods), use of fluorides (systemic and topical), pit and fissure sealants (Harris & García-Godoy, 1999;Featherstone, 2000;Axelsson, 2000Axelsson, , 2004Gussy, et al, 2006). Furthermore, strategies to control the disease through risk assessment have been developed, which have also been extensively investigated (Vanobbergen, et al, 2001;Pearce, et al, 2002;Bratthall & Hänsel Petersson, 2005;Featherstone, et al, 2007;Ramos-Gomez, et al, 2010;Gao, et al, 2010). On the other hand, the advance of technology has also developed tools for the proper diagnosis of the lesion incipient such as DIAGNOdent and QLF (Stookey, 2004;Berg, 2007;Tranaeus, et al, 2007) as well as the need to detect in epidemiological studies noncavitated lesions (Ismail, et al, 2007).…”

Pencegahan primer pada anak yang berisiko karies tinggi (Primary prevention in children with high caries risk)

“…10 Anak yang berisiko karies tinggi mempunyai oral hygiene yang buruk ditandai dengan adanya plak pada gigi anterior disebabkan jarang melakukan kontrol plak. 5,11,12 Indikator risiko karies Risiko rendah Risiko sedang Risiko tinggi Guidelines on the use of pit and fissures sealants in paediatric dentistry: an EAPD…”