The UVic Earth System Climate Model: Model Description, Climatology, and Applications to Past, Present and Future Climates

Weaver, Andrew J.; Eby, Michael; Wiebe, Edward C.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; Duffy, P.; Ewen, Tracy; Fanning, Augustus F.; Holland, Marika M.; MacFadyen, Amy; Matthews, H. Damon; Meißner, Katrin J.; Saenko, Oleg A.; Schmittner, Andreas; Wang, Huaxiao; Yoshimori, Masakazu

doi:10.4324/9781315170206-12

Cited by 71 publications

(128 citation statements)

References 1 publication

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“…The University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) is an intermediate complexity model with a horizontal grid resolution of 1.8°(meridional) × 3.6°(zonal) (Weaver et al, ). The physical model consists of an atmosphere model coupled to an ocean general circulation model (including both organic and inorganic carbon cycle), a sea ice model, and a land surface model together with dynamic terrestrial vegetation (Weaver et al, ) and is coupled to models of the marine and terrestrial carbon cycle.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Path Independence of Carbon Budgets When Meeting a Stringent Global Mean Temperature Target After an Overshoot

2019

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Emission pathways that are consistent with meeting the Paris Agreement goal of holding global mean temperature rise well below 2°C often assume a temperature overshoot. In such overshoot scenarios, a given temperature limit is first exceeded and later returned to, under the assumption of large-scale deliberate carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere. Here we show that although such strategy might result in a reversal of global mean temperature, the carbon cycle exhibits path dependence. After an overshoot, more carbon is stored in the ocean and less on land compared to a scenario with the same cumulative CO 2 emissions but no overshoot. The near-path independence of surface air temperature arises despite the path dependence in the carbon cycle, as it is offset by path dependence in the thermal response of the ocean. Such behavior has important implications for carbon budgets (i.e. the total amount of CO 2 emissions consistent with holding warming to a given level), which do not differ much among scenarios that entail different levels of overshoot. Therefore, the concept of a carbon budget remains robust for scenarios with low levels of overshoot (up to 300 Pg C overshoot considered here) but should be used with caution for higher levels of overshoot, particularly for limiting the environmental change in dimensions other than global mean temperature rise.Plain Language Summary Many of the CO 2 emission pathways that are consistent with the 1.5 and 2°C temperature limit in the long term are based on an assumption that emitting CO 2 and removing it later from the atmosphere leads to the same state of the climate system. Such removal of excess carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the atmosphere is possible, in principle, by the implementation of technologies that deliberately remove CO 2 from the atmosphere (referred to as CDR), resulting in net-negative emissions.Here we study climate response to overshoot scenarios, where a given temperature level is temporarily exceeded and then restored by carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere. We show that carbon cycle responses depend on the CO 2 emission pathway, and the magnitude of the overshoot. However, the global mean temperature response is reversible and independent of CO 2 emission pathway. This has important implications for carbon budgets (i.e., the total amount of CO 2 emissions that can be emitted to limit global mean warming to a given level). We show that carbon budgets do not differ much among scenarios whereby a given target is reached after temporary overshoot, and nonovershoot scenarios.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The atmosphere is represented by an energy‐moisture balance model with winds prescribed from observation‐based data (Weaver et al, ). The atmospheric model is coupled to a three‐dimensional ocean general circulation model, consisting of 19 vertical levels and global resolution of 1.8°(meridional) × 3.6°(zonal) (Weaver et al, ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Path Independence of Carbon Budgets When Meeting a Stringent Global Mean Temperature Target After an Overshoot

2019

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“…For the assessment of the appropriateness of linear box models for the investigation of CDR in IAMs, we implemented the derived optimal policies in (1) the nonlinear BEAM model (Glotter et al, ) and the intermediate complexity UVic ESCM (Eby et al, ; Weaver et al, ). For this exercise, we followed Glotter et al () by extending the simulation time‐horizon beyond the optimization time‐horizon until the year 4000.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We focus on storage of carbon from CDR in the ocean, covering a broad range of specific CDR methods that are utilized incrementally according to their marginal deployment costs. To validate our integrated assessment of CDR we implement the optimal climate policies in the nonlinear Bolin and Eriksson adjusted model (BEAM) (Glotter et al () and the intermediate complexity University of Victoria Earth system climate model (UVic ESCM) (Eby et al, ; Weaver et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated Assessment of Carbon Dioxide Removal

et al. 2018

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To maintain the chance of keeping the average global temperature increase below 2°C and to limit long‐term climate change, removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (carbon dioxide removal, CDR) is becoming increasingly necessary. We analyze optimal and cost‐effective climate policies in the dynamic integrated assessment model (IAM) of climate and the economy (DICE2016R) and investigate (1) the utilization of (ocean) CDR under different climate objectives, (2) the sensitivity of policies with respect to carbon cycle feedbacks, and (3) how well carbon cycle feedbacks are captured in the carbon cycle models used in state‐of‐the‐art IAMs. Overall, the carbon cycle model in DICE2016R shows clear improvements compared to its predecessor, DICE2013R, capturing much better long‐term dynamics and also oceanic carbon outgassing due to excess oceanic storage of carbon from CDR. However, this comes at the cost of a (too) tight short‐term remaining emission budget, limiting the model suitability to analyze low‐emission scenarios accurately. With DICE2016R, the compliance with the 2°C goal is no longer feasible without negative emissions via CDR. Overall, the optimal amount of CDR has to take into account (1) the emission substitution effect and (2) compensation for carbon cycle feedbacks.

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“…, ; Weaver et al. , )), momentum and temperature fluxes in the atmospheric boundary layer (Stull, ) or SGS Reynold stresses in large‐eddy simulations (e.g. (Pope, )).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stochastic subgrid‐scale parametrization for one‐dimensional shallow‐water dynamics using stochastic mode reduction

Zacharuk

Dolaptchiev

Achatz

et al. 2018

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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We address the question of parametrizing the subgrid scales in simulations of geophysical flows by applying stochastic mode reduction to the one-dimensional stochastically forced shallow-water equations. The problem is formulated in physical space by defining resolved variables as local spatial averages over finite-volume cells and unresolved variables as corresponding residuals. Based on the assumption of a time-scale separation between the slow spatial averages and the fast residuals, the stochastic mode reduction procedure is used to obtain a low-resolution model for the spatial averages alone with local stochastic subgrid-scale parametrization coupling each resolved variable only to a few neighbouring cells. The closure improves the results of the low-resolution model and outperforms two purely empirical stochastic parametrizations. It is shown that the largest benefit is in the representation of the energy spectrum. By adjusting only a single coefficient (the strength of the noise) we observe that there is a potential for improving the performance of the parametrization, if additional tuning of the coefficients is performed. In addition, the scale-awareness of the parametrizations is studied.

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The UVic Earth System Climate Model: Model Description, Climatology, and Applications to Past, Present and Future Climates

Cited by 71 publications

References 1 publication

Path Independence of Carbon Budgets When Meeting a Stringent Global Mean Temperature Target After an Overshoot

Path Independence of Carbon Budgets When Meeting a Stringent Global Mean Temperature Target After an Overshoot

Integrated Assessment of Carbon Dioxide Removal

Stochastic subgrid‐scale parametrization for one‐dimensional shallow‐water dynamics using stochastic mode reduction

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