The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation

Vuuren, Detlef van; Isaac, Morna; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Arnell, Nigel W.; Barker, Terry; Criqui, Patrick; Berkhout, Frans; Hilderink, Henk; Hinkel, Jochen; Hof, Andries F.; Kitous, Alban; Kram, Tom; Mechler, Reinhard; Scrieciu, S. Şerban

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.11.003

Cited by 107 publications

(92 citation statements)

References 60 publications

(59 reference statements)

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“…5 Such analysis has been key for assessing climate change policy and exploring the complex, future interactions between factors like land and energy use, economic development, greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), the climate system and ecosystem impacts (Van Vuuren et al, 2010). 5 The above discussed economic models are generally considered integrated ECONOMIC assessment models and form a group of their own in this model class.…”

Section: 5mentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecological macroeconomics: An application to climate change

Rezai

Taylor

Mechler

2013

Ecological Economics

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Ecological Economics has not paid sufficient attention to the macroeconomic level both in terms of theory and modelling. Yet, key topics debated in the field of Ecological Economics such as sustainable consumption, reduction in working time, the degrowth debate, the energy-exergy link, and the rebound effect require a wholistic and macro perspective. While this deficiency has been identified before and Keynesian economics has been generally suggested as a potent vehicle to establish economic system's thinking, very little concrete theorizing and practical suggestions have been put forward. We give further credence to this suggestion and demonstrate the value of tackling key concerns of Ecological Economics within a Keynesian growth framework. Contextualized by an application to climate change we suggest that policy relevant recommendations need to be based on a consistent view of the macroeconomy. We end with laying out key building blocks for a Keynesian model framework for an Ecological Macroeconomics.

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Section: 5mentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecological macroeconomics: An application to climate change

Rezai

Taylor

Mechler

2013

Ecological Economics

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“…Scenario approaches have stood at the heart of projections of both climate and socio-economic futures because they are a powerful way of representing uncertainties in complex, dynamic systems. An important analytical challenge in combining climate scenarios and socioeconomic scenarios is that they each deal with different forms of uncertainty (Berkhout et al 2002;van Vuuren et al 2011). While climate scenarios are concerned primarily with uncertainties in physical and biogeochemical systems, socio-economic scenarios are concerned with uncertainties in economic, social, political and cultural systems in which reflexivity and innovation are fundamental features.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Framing climate uncertainty: socio-economic and climate scenarios in vulnerability and adaptation assessments

et al. 2013

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Scenarios have become a powerful tool in integrated assessment and policy analysis for climate change. Socio-economic and climate scenarios are often combined to assess climate change impacts and vulnerabilities across different sectors and to inform risk management strategies. Such combinations of scenarios can also play an important role in enabling the interaction between experts and other stakeholders, framing issues and providing a means for making explicit and dealing with uncertainties. Drawing on experience with the application of scenarios to climate change assessments in recent Dutch research, the paper argues that scenario approaches need to be matched to the frames of stakeholders who are situated in specific decision contexts. Differentiated approaches (top-down, bottom-up and interactive) are needed to address the different frames and decision-making contexts of stakeholders. A framework is proposed to map scenarios and decision contexts onto two dimensions: the spatial scale of the context and the starting point of approach used in scenario development (top-down, bottom-up or incidentdriven). Future climate and socio-economic scenario development will be shaped by the need to become better aligned with multiple interacting uncertainties salient to stakeholders.

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“…38 First, the adverse impacts of climate change on agriculture and the ecosystemdecreased water availability, geographical shifts, yield reduction and increased risks to pests -could lead to food insecurity which in turn leads to malnutrition (undernutrition). 39 Food insecurity and malnutrition debilitate the immune response, making people more susceptible to malaria (and other) infections.…”

Section: Benefits Of Climate Change Mitigation In Malaria Controlmentioning

confidence: 99%