The Use of Indigenous Methods in Seasonal Climate Prediction and Adaptation among Farmers in Atisbo Local Government Area of Oyo State, Nigeria

Abstract

In recent times, agricultural productivity has been on the decline in ATISBO Local Government of Oyo State due to neglect by the government and more recently, severity of climate change. More worrisome is the fact that farmers do not have access to modern technologies for climate prediction and adaptation which has made them to rely heavily on their indigenous methods. Consequently, the focus of this study is to investigate the indigenous methods used by farmers in climate prediction and adaptation as well as the effects of climate change on crop yield. Data for the study were obtained via a structured questionnaire and focus group discussion involving 260 farmers. It was found that farmers' age (R²=19.7%; B=0.444), duration of stay in locality (R²=35.7%; B=0.598) and education (R²=38.9%; B=-0.623) were the major determinants of the use of indigenous methods in climate prediction and adaptation. Animal behaviour, plant phenology, atmospheric changes, astronomical changes and water bodies were the major indigenous methods of climate prediction while multi cropping and contour ploughing were some adaptive measures. Crop yields of the farmers declined drastically while it is glaring that climate change is taking its toll on the indigenous methods of farmers. The paper recommends easy access of farmers to modern technologies for climate prediction and adaptation, as well as the integration of indigenous methods with scientific method. Contribution/Originality: This study is one of the very few studies to investigate the use of indigenous methods in seasonal climate prediction and adaptation among farmers in Nigeria. Although different indigenous methods were reported, the severity of climate change is beginning to take its toll on the indigenous methods of farmers. 1. INTRODUCTION In Oyo State, like in many other parts of Nigeria, the majority of the people live in rural areas where poverty and deprivation are the most severe. The dependence of rural dwellers on agriculture and its overall contribution to the economy makes agriculture a key industry in Oyo State. It is the single largest employer of labour, a source of raw materials to industries and a major source of revenue to the state. The rapid population growth rate experienced in the state suggests that agriculture now has more mouths to feed than ever before. With a population of over 5,000,000 people (National Population Commission, 2006) agriculture has not been able to meet the increasing and more diversified food requirements of the population. Thus, from being self-sufficient in food production, the state is now experiencing a serious food crisis due to uncertainty in seasonal prediction for crop