The use of geospatial tools to study the evolution of TB incidence in North Portugal between 2008-18

Abstract

Background Tuberculosis continues to be a significant global health problem. Portugal isn't an exception to this health problem, being considered by the ECDC a high incidence country. According to the SDG target 3.3, the world must end the epidemics of tuberculosis by 2030. However, several parishes in Portugal continue to observe extremely high values of TB, taking into account the WHO goal for pre-elimination of 10 TB cases per million people. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted with data from the Surveillance System of the National Program against Tuberculosis. Descriptive and regression analyses were carried out using R 3.6.1 and Rstudio 1.2.5033. The geospatial analysis was carried out with ArcMap 10.7.1 using a five-year average of TB incidence. Animations and videos were made with Microsoft Office365 PowerPoint v2002. Results In the period 2008-2012, 55,7% of parishes had registered cases of tuberculosis. That value decreased to 50,6% parishes in the period 2014-2018. For the period of 2014-18, 30,3% of parishes had a five-year average incidence above 20/100.000 people (value defined as high-incidence by the ECDC) and 45,0% parishes an incidence above 10/100.000 people. With ArcMap HotSpot analysis was possible to observe the existence of a significant cluster of TB in the southwest of North Portugal. With animation analysis, it was also possible to see the global spatial reduction of TB cases between 2008 and 2018, and the ongoing problem of a high incidence of TB in specific regions of North Portugal. Conclusions TB continues to be a significant health problem in North Portugal. The spatial analysis pointed to a specific area of North Portugal that needs priority action. Videos produced by the Department of Public Health may guide health professionals and policymakers for future strategies to be implemented to reach SDG3. Key messages The importance of desegregated spatial data for TB elimination. The elimination efforts must be scaled up in specific areas to achieve SDG3.