The use of DNA statistics in criminal trials

Henderson, J. P.

doi:10.1016/s0379-0738(02)00198-6

Cited by 9 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“… Robertson and Vignaux , 1995 for an introduction, or Evett , 1995 for examples). Other interesting examples of interpretation errors are given in Taroni and Aitken (2000) and Henderson (2002). A recent example in the Netherlands is the following reasoning by a court of justice, who concluded that the probability that the blood stain originates from some one other than the suspect is 1 in 53 million, whereas in fact the expert had reported that the probability that a random individual matches the DNA profile of the crime stain is 1 in 53 million (verkort arrest Hof Amsterdam 26 april 2001, number 961/01).…”

Section: The Prosecutor's Fallacymentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical aspects of interpreting DNA profiling in legal cases

Sjerps

Kloosterman

2003

Statistica Neerlandica

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DNA profiling has become one of the most powerful forensic techniques that is used in criminal investigations to identify suspects. Moreover, scientific DNA evidence has become an important component in criminal trials. The interpretation of DNA evidence involves many statistical and probabilistic aspects, which have been the subject of fierce debates over past years. Many controversies are rooted in the differences between the so‐called Likelihood Ratio approach to evidence interpretation and other methods. However, though interesting for the statistician and probability theorist, these discussions are obstructive for legal proceedings. Fortunately, many issues have by now been settled, but the ever‐expanding possibilities keep on raising new discussion topics. This paper provides a brief overview of the statistical discussion, and addresses some of the most interesting issues in more detail.

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Section: The Prosecutor's Fallacymentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical aspects of interpreting DNA profiling in legal cases

Sjerps

Kloosterman

2003

Statistica Neerlandica

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“…When in contrast with their own opinion, expert witnesses and legal professionals tend not to consider the results provided by a statistical tool built on actuarial data (Tadei et al 2018). This might affect the correctness of the conclusions drawn by forensic professionals, since it has been demonstrated that various cognitive biases might affect decision-making and accuracy also when dealing with statistics (e.g., defense counsel's fallacy, prosecutor's fallacy; Fenton and Neil 2012;Henderson 2002). In sum, background information and classification methods have potential to improve the accuracy of the decisions made by legal professionals, but available studies indicate that more training is needed.…”

Section: Statistical Use Of Background Informationmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Police Use of Background Information Related to Alleged Victims in Mock Evaluations of Child Sexual Abuse

Tadei

Santtila

Antfolk

2019

J Police Crim Psych

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When statistically related to child sexual abuse (CSA), background information can assist decision-making in investigations of CSA allegations. Here, we studied the use of such background information among Finnish police officers. We analyzed their ability to identify and interpret CSA-related and CSA-unrelated background information both when placed in mock scenarios and when presented as separate, individual variables. We also measured the ability to correctly estimate the probability of CSA based on such background information. In the context of mock scenarios, officers were better in discarding CSA-unrelated variables than in identifying CSA-related ones. Within-subject performance across different scenarios was, however, not consistent. When information was presented as separate variables, officers tended to incorrectly consider many CSA-unrelated variables as CSArelated. Officers performed better in recognizing whether actual CSA-related variables increase or decrease the probability of CSA. Finally, officers were inaccurate in identifying variables that are CSA-related only for boys or only for girls. When asked to estimate the CSA probability of mock scenarios, participants were accurate only in assessing low-probability cases, and this was not associated with the ability to identify CSA-related and CSA-unrelated variables. We conclude that police officers would benefit from more training in using background information and from using available decision-making support tools in the context of investigating CSA allegations.

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“…When in contrast with their own opinion, expert witnesses and legal professionals tend not to consider the results provided by a statistical tool built on actuarial data (Tadei et al, n.d.). This might affect the correctness of the conclusions drawn by forensic professionals, since it has been demonstrated that various cognitive biases might affect decision making and accuracy also when dealing with statistics, (e.g., defense counsel's fallacy, prosecutor's fallacy; Fenton & Neil, 2012;Henderson, 2002). In sum, background information and classification methods have potential to improve the accuracy of the decisions made by legal professionals, but available studies indicate that more training is needed.…”

Section: Statistical Use Of Background Informationmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Police Use of Background Information Related to Alleged Victims in Mock Evaluations of Child Sexual Abuse

Tadei¹,

Santtila²,

Antfolk³

2019

Preprint

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When statistically related to child sexual abuse (CSA), background information can assist decision-making in investigations of CSA allegations. Here, we studied the use of such background information among Finnish police officers. We analyzed their ability to identify and interpret CSA-related and -unrelated background information both when placed in mock scenarios and when presented as separate variables. We also measured the ability to correctly estimate the base-rate of CSA allegations being true based on such background information. In the context of mock scenarios, officers were better in discarding CSA-unrelated variables than in identifying CSA-related ones. Within-subject performance across different scenarios was, however, not consistent. When information was presented as separate variables, officers tended to incorrectly consider many CSA-unrelated variables as CSA-related. Officers performed well in recognizing whether CSA-related variables increase or decrease CSA risk. Finally, officers were inaccurate in identifying variables that are CSA-related only for boys or only for girls. When asked to estimate the CSA probability of mock scenarios, participants were accurate only in assessing low-probability cases, and this was not associated with the ability to identify CSA-related and -unrelated variables. We conclude that police officers would benefit from more training in using background information and from using available decision-making support tools in the context of investigating CSA allegations.

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The use of DNA statistics in criminal trials

Cited by 9 publications

References 3 publications

Statistical aspects of interpreting DNA profiling in legal cases

Statistical aspects of interpreting DNA profiling in legal cases

The Police Use of Background Information Related to Alleged Victims in Mock Evaluations of Child Sexual Abuse

The Police Use of Background Information Related to Alleged Victims in Mock Evaluations of Child Sexual Abuse

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