The use of an integrated variable fuzzy sets in water resources management

Qiu, Qingtai; Liu, Jia; Li, Chuanzhe; Yu, Xinzhe; Wang, Yang

doi:10.5194/piahs-379-249-2018

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 7 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…A possibilistic framework could integrate within a response surface many more of such uncertainties when probabilities are not relevant, as done in other water management studies (El- Baroudy and Simonovic, 2004, Afshar et al, 2011, Jun et al, 2013, Qiu et al, 2018, Wang et al, 2020. One particularly suitable use of fuzzy logic should be to consider as fuzzy values the ex-post expert judgement on the possibility or likeliness of the obtained synthetic time series in a given river basin.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Possibilistic response surfaces: incorporating fuzzy thresholds into bottom-up flood vulnerability analysis

Lachaut¹,

Tilmant²

2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Several alternatives have been proposed to shift the paradigms of water management under uncertainty from predictive to decision-centric. An often-mentioned tool is the stress-test response surface, mapping system performance to a large sample of future hydro-climatic conditions. Dividing this exposure space between acceptable and unacceptable states requires a criterion of acceptable performance defined by a threshold. In practice, however, stakeholders and decision-makers may be confronted with ambiguous objectives for which the the acceptability threshold is not clearly defined (crisp). To accommodate such situations, this paper integrates fuzzy thresholds to the response surface tool. Such integration is not straightforward when response surfaces also have their own irreducible uncertainty, from the limited number of descriptors and the stochasticity of hydro-climatic conditions. Incorporating fuzzy thresholds therefore requires articulating uncertainties that are different in nature: the irreducible uncertainty of the response itself relative to the variables that describe change, and the ambiguity of the acceptability threshold. We thus propose possibilistic surfaces to assess flood vulnerability with fuzzy acceptability thresholds. An adaptation of the logistic regression for fuzzy set theory combines the probability of acceptable outcome and the ambiguity of the acceptability criterion within a single possibility measure. We use the flood-prone reservoir system of the Upper Saint-François River Basin in Canada as a case study to illustrate the proposed approach. Results show how a fuzzy threshold can be quantitatively integrated when generating a response surface, and how ignoring it might lead to different decisions. This study suggests that further theoretical development should link the decision-making under deep uncertainty framework with the existing experience of fuzzy set theory, notably for hydro-climatic vulnerability analysis.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Possibilistic response surfaces: incorporating fuzzy thresholds into bottom-up flood vulnerability analysis

Lachaut¹,

Tilmant²

2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…A possibilistic framework could integrate within a response surface many more of these kinds of uncertainties when probabilities are not relevant or too uncertain, as done in other water management studies (El- Baroudy and Simonovic, 2004;Afshar et al, 2011;Jun et al, 2013;Le Cozannet et al, 2017;Qiu et al, 2018;Wang et al, 2021). One particularly suitable use of fuzzy logic should be to consider as fuzzy values the ex post expert judgment on the possibility or likeliness of the obtained synthetic time series in a given river basin.…”

Section: T Lachaut and A Tilmant: Possibilistic Response Surfacesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Fuzzy set theory (Zadeh, 1965) provides an analytical framework to characterize and manipulate stakeholders' ambiguity (Huynh et al, 2007). It has been extensively used in the water domain (Tilmant et al, 2002;El-Baroudy and Simonovic, 2004;Le Cozannet et al, 2017;Qiu et al, 2018), particularly to solve multi-objective decision-making problems (e.g., Jun et al, 2013). However, to the best of our knowledge, fuzzy set theory has not yet been used to handle imprecise thresholds between satisfactory and unsatisfactory regions of a response surface.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Possibilistic response surfaces: incorporating fuzzy thresholds into bottom-up flood vulnerability analysis

Lachaut

Tilmant

2021

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Several alternatives have been proposed to shift the paradigms of water management under uncertainty from predictive to decision-centric. An often-mentioned tool is the response surface mapping system performance with a large sample of future hydroclimatic conditions through a stress test. Dividing this exposure space between acceptable and unacceptable states requires a criterion of acceptable performance defined by a threshold. In practice, however, stakeholders and decision-makers may be confronted with ambiguous objectives for which the acceptability threshold is not clearly defined (crisp). To accommodate such situations, this paper integrates fuzzy thresholds to the response surface tool. Such integration is not straightforward when response surfaces also have their own irreducible uncertainty from the limited number of descriptors and the stochasticity of hydroclimatic conditions. Incorporating fuzzy thresholds, therefore, requires articulating categories of imperfect knowledge that are different in nature, i.e., the irreducible uncertainty of the response itself relative to the variables that describe change and the ambiguity of the acceptability threshold. We, thus, propose possibilistic surfaces to assess flood vulnerability with fuzzy acceptability thresholds. An adaptation of the logistic regression for fuzzy set theory combines the probability of an acceptable outcome and the ambiguity of the acceptability criterion within a single possibility measure. We use the flood-prone reservoir system of the Upper Saint François River basin in Canada as a case study to illustrate the proposed approach. Results show how a fuzzy threshold can be quantitatively integrated when generating a response surface and how ignoring it might lead to different decisions. This study suggests that further conceptual developments could link the reliance on acceptability thresholds in bottom-up assessment frameworks with the current uses of fuzzy set theory.

show abstract

Evaluation of water resource carrying capacity of two typical cities in northern China

Qiu

Liu

et al. 2021

Journal of Water and Climate Change

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Global climate change and human activities are increasingly affecting the regional water resource carrying capacity (WRCC). For sustainable development, an important social challenge is understanding the carrying level of regional water resources. In this study, to assess the WRCC status, we used a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model and combined the natural and social attributes of WRCC. Moreover, from the three dimensions of support force subsystem, pressure force subsystem (PFS), and regulation force subsystem (RFS), 12 evaluation indicators were selected. Furthermore, using the fuzzy comprehensive theory and natural and social comprehensive indicators, we constructed a WRCC-level evaluation model and used it to evaluate the carrying level of two typical cities in China, Shijiazhuang and Langfang, for the 2006–2015 period. The results demonstrate that the regional water-carrying status of each of these cities is slightly above that of WRCC and that carrying levels show an interannual increasing trend. Note that, in both cities, the primary reason for the low regional WRCC is a water shortage, while PFS improvement, supported by an interannual PFS increasing trend during the same time period, is the primary reason for carrying-level improvement for both cities in the past 10 years. For the RFS dimension, evaluation scores were in the range of 2.14–2.98 for Shijiazhuang and 2.12–2.79 for Langfang. Furthermore, the evaluation model and the indicator system demonstrated complementary functionality; thus, our results have an important academic value, particularly with reference for evaluating the WRCC.

show abstract

The use of an integrated variable fuzzy sets in water resources management

Cited by 3 publications

References 7 publications

Possibilistic response surfaces: incorporating fuzzy thresholds into bottom-up flood vulnerability analysis

Possibilistic response surfaces: incorporating fuzzy thresholds into bottom-up flood vulnerability analysis

Possibilistic response surfaces: incorporating fuzzy thresholds into bottom-up flood vulnerability analysis

Evaluation of water resource carrying capacity of two typical cities in northern China

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About