The use of air travel data for predicting dengue importation to China: A modelling study

Findlater, Aidan; Moineddin, Rahim; Kain, Dylan; Yang, Juan; Wang, Xiling; Lai, Shengjie; Khan, Kamran; Bogoch, Isaac I.

doi:10.1016/j.tmaid.2019.07.002

Cited by 19 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…As human mobility and connectivity continue to advance, dengue spread via importation will continue to increase at unpredictable rates [4,15]. The complexity of the air transport network poses a substantial challenge in the understanding of the dynamics of dengue spread and importation [16,17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dengue importation into Europe: A network connectivity-based approach

et al. 2020

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The spread of dengue through global human mobility is a major public health concern. A key challenge is understanding the transmission pathways and mediating factors that characterized the patterns of dengue importation into non-endemic areas. Utilizing a network connectivity-based approach, we analyze the importation patterns of dengue fever into European countries. Seven connectivity indices were developed to characterize the role of the air passenger traffic, seasonality, incidence rate, geographical proximity, epidemic vulnerability, and wealth of a source country, in facilitating the transport and importation of dengue fever. We used generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) to examine the relationship between dengue importation and the connectivity indices while accounting for the air transport network structure. We also incorporated network autocorrelation within a GLMM framework to investigate the propensity of a European country to receive an imported case, by virtue of its position within the air transport network. The connectivity indices and dynamical processes of the air transport network were strong predictors of dengue importation in Europe. With more than 70% of the variation in dengue importation patterns explained. We found that transportation potential was higher for source countries with seasonal dengue activity, high passenger traffic, high incidence rates, high epidemic vulnerability, and in geographical proximity to a destination country in Europe. We also found that position of a European country within the air transport network was a strong predictor of the country's propensity to receive an imported case. Our findings provide evidence that the importation patterns of dengue into Europe can be largely explained by appropriately characterizing the heterogeneities of the source, and topology of the air transport network. This contributes to the foundational framework for building integrated predictive models for bio-surveillance of dengue importation.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dengue importation into Europe: A network connectivity-based approach

et al. 2020

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“…We speculate that the new airline between Nanchang and Cambodia may be the contributory factor of a continuous movement of dengue virus-infected individuals traveling from Cambodia, therefore causing a sharp rise in the DENV infection cases in Jiangxi since June 2019. Air travel was reported to have a measurable impact on the importation of dengue virus to China, and prediction of dengue virus importation could help prevent and control the spread of the disease (Findlater et al, 2019;Wilson, 2019). The aggregation of diseases in a small village in Nanchang, after a few sporadic cases in the nearby areas, revealed disease transmission pattern.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Emergence and Autochthonous Transmission of Dengue Virus Type I in a Low-Epidemic Region in Southeast China

Zhang

Chen

Wang³

et al. 2021

Front. Cell. Infect. Microbiol.

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BackgroundDengue fever is a mosquito-borne febrile illness. Southeast Asia experienced severe dengue outbreaks in 2019, and over 1000 cases had been reported in Jiangxi, a previously known low-epidemic region in China. However, the emergence of a dengue virus epidemic in a non-epidemic region remains unclear.MethodsWe enrolled 154 dengue fever patients from four hospitals in Jiangxi, from April 2019 to September 2019. Real-time PCR, NS1 antigen rapid test, and IgM, IgG tests were performed, and 14 samples were outsourced to be sequenced metagenomically.ResultsAmong the 154 cases, 42 were identified as imported and most of them returned from Cambodia. A total of 113 blood samples were obtained and 106 were identified as DENV-1, two as DENV-2, and five were negative through RT-PCR. All DENV-1 strains sequenced in this study were all classified to one cluster and owned a high similarity with a Cambodia strain isolated in 2019. The evolutionary relationships of amino acid were consistent with that of nucleotide genome result. The sequence-based findings of Jiangxi strains were consistent with epidemiological investigation.ConclusionEpidemiological analysis demonstrated that the emergence of dengue cases led to autochthonous transmission in several cities in Jiangxi, a low-epidemic region before. This study emphasized future prevention and control of dengue fever in both epidemic and non-epidemic regions.

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“…Previous studies have identified air travel as a major driver of the importation of measles and a variety of other infectious diseases and have found value in incorporating reported imported case data (11,12,18). By isolating air travel and incidence in model inputs, we were able to additionally explore the influence of each on measles importations events, as well as leverage reported imported measles data to strengthen our approach via cross-validation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Ultimately, these importations are driven by a combination of incidence in source countries and international travel patterns, suggesting that importation into the US will continue until elimination is achieved globally (9). Patterns of imported cases have been modeled for many other diseases, including MERS, chikungunya, dengue, Zika, Ebola, Lassa fever, and COVID-19, and have focused on the relationship between air travel and importation risk (10)(11)(12)(13)(14)(15)(16)(17). A previous implementation of travel-driven measles importation into New Zealand used travel data and global measles incidence data to determine age-specific importation risk with a generalized linear model (18).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Air passenger travel and international surveillance data predict spatiotemporal variation in measles importations to the United States

Poterek

Kraemer

Watts

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Measles incidence in the United States has grown dramatically, as vaccination rates are declining and transmission internationally is on the rise. Measles virus is highly infectious and can cause severe symptoms and even death. Because imported cases are necessary drivers of outbreaks in non-endemic settings, predicting measles outbreaks in the US depends on predicting imported cases. To assess the predictability of imported measles cases, we performed a regression of imported measles cases in the US against an inflow variable that combines air travel data with international measles surveillance data. To understand the contribution of each data type to these predictions, we repeated the regression analysis with alternative versions of the inflow variable that replaced each data type with averaged values and with versions of the inflow variable that used modeled inputs. We assessed the performance of these regression models using correlation, coverage probability, and area under the curve statistics, including with resampling and cross-validation. Our regression model had good predictive ability with respect to the presence or absence of imported cases in a given state in a given year (AUC = 0.78) and the magnitude of imported cases (Pearson correlation = 0.84). By comparing alternative versions of the inflow variable averaging over different inputs, we found that both air travel data and international surveillance data contribute to the model’s ability to predict numbers of imported cases, and individually contribute to its ability to predict the presence or absence of imported cases. Predicted sources of imported measles cases varied considerably across years and US states, depending on which countries had high measles activity in a given year. Our results emphasize the importance of the relationship between global connectedness and the spread of measles.

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The use of air travel data for predicting dengue importation to China: A modelling study

Cited by 19 publications

References 21 publications

Dengue importation into Europe: A network connectivity-based approach

Dengue importation into Europe: A network connectivity-based approach

Emergence and Autochthonous Transmission of Dengue Virus Type I in a Low-Epidemic Region in Southeast China

Air passenger travel and international surveillance data predict spatiotemporal variation in measles importations to the United States

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