The urban futures methodology applied to urban regeneration

Abstract

Making cities more sustainable is a top priority – for national governments, for cities and for the people who live, work and visit urban areas. The past decade has seen a concerted UK effort to develop, apply and assess sustainability solutions for the present and near future; however, little has been done to test urban regeneration solutions beyond that. This paper describes a methodology that has developed future scenarios for the year 2050 against which to test the robustness of current engineering solutions, thereby providing unique insights into the potential impacts of present urban planning and design decisions, and thus financial investments. If a proposed solution delivers a positive legacy, regardless of the future against which it is tested, then it can be adopted with confidence. When there are very different outcomes depending on the future, the solution can either be modified to create an improved outcome regardless of the future or implemented in the knowledge of the likely impacts if the future develops in different ways. The urban futures methodology has been applied to the Lancaster Luneside East regeneration site, for which contextual information is described along with a justification for its use as a case study to trial the methodology.

Urban futures and the code for sustainable homes

“…An accompanying paper by Farmani et al (2012) provides a water resource and infrastructure context for the broader northwest region and outlines the local water provider's (United Utilities) role, the regulatory regime and the overall future resilience implications (including user behaviour) for the Urban futures and the code for sustainable homes Hunt, Lombardi, Farmani, et al surrounding area using the UF methodology, as outlined in this special issue by Rogers et al (2012).…”

Improving contemporary approaches to the master planning process

“…The nature of contemporary development in the UK. (Adams and Davies, 2012;Adams and Tiesdell, 2012;Adams et al, 2010;AlWaer et al, 2013;Bell, 2005;Boyko et al, 2005;CABE, 2011;Carmona et al, 2010;Cooper and Symes, 2009;Ellin, 2012;Lawlor, 2011;Lombardi et al, 2012;McInroy and Longlands, 2010;Roberts, 2009;Rogers et al, 2012;Trained, 2011;Urban Design Protocol, 2011;Madanipour, 2006;Tiesdell and Adams, 2011) Urban Design and Planning Volume 167 Issue DP1…”

Scenario-based sustainable water management and urban regeneration

“…They help to account better for the impact that future changes are going to have on current solutions, allowing for exploration of variability and more extreme futures (Butler, 2004). In this work, using the urban futures methodology, as outlined in Boyko et al (2011) and Rogers et al (2012), the relative resilience of current solutions to future changes is assessed. The four scenarios adopted are listed below.…”

“…As described by Rogers et al (2012), the urban futures methodology requires the necessary conditions for each intended benefit to be identified and considered against the characteristics of the four plausible futures.…”

“…The resilience of the proposed sustainable water management options will be discussed. Finally, the supply and demand management options will be compared, considering local conditions and constraints, in terms of water savings/yield and benefits as well as their resilience to a range of changes in the future using the urban futures methodology as outlined in Rogers et al (2012).…”