The Unintended Consequences of COVID-19 Mitigation Measures on Mass Transit and Car Use

Abstract

As the world adapts to COVID-19, the transport behaviour of commuters has been greatly modified. Governments and transit authorities will need strong, well-received mitigation measures and education campaigns to maintain the historically upward trend of sustainable mass transit usage following this pandemic. This study, from a survey of 1968 Canadians in early May 2020, reveals that, following the end of stay-at-home orders, commuters intend to use their cars more and mass transit less. Driving these behavioural changes are commuters’ perceptions that mass transit use will negatively impact their health safety, peace of mind, and travel experience. The results also show that certain mitigation measures, such as more frequent cleaning and mandatory hand washing, are likely to reduce this decline, whereas e-monitoring and the use of health certificates will be detrimental to mass transit ridership through user perception. These results can help lessen the environmental impact of the public returning to work by encouraging their continued use of more environmentally friendly modes of transportation.

Social-distancing Fatigue: Evidence from Real-time Crowd-sourced Traffic Data

“…24 It is possible that individuals who otherwise would have used public transit such as subways or buses are now relying more heavily on private or shared vehicles to reduce their chance of exposure, as was found in Canada. 25 Understanding changes in traffic congestion during the pandemic is useful not only as a proxy for human mobility, but also for implications on large-scale traffic interventions that may be implemented in the future. For example, in 2019 New York City became the first American city to approve a congestion pricing policy, 26 with implementation scheduled to begin in early 2021 (although this was delayed).…”

“…24 It is possible that individuals who otherwise would have used public transit such as subways or buses are now relying more heavily on private or shared vehicles to reduce their chance of exposure, as was found in Canada. 25…”

Spatiotemporal contact density explains the disparity of COVID-19 spread in urban neighborhoods

“…First, social distancing inherently involves physical interaction between individuals which is not directly captured by traffic flow and distance traveled. Travelers who travel long distances alone or in small groups with little exposure to contact with others, such as in private vehicles, are misclassified as equally potential vectors of the virus as those who travel in close proximity of many others, such as public transit during the peak hours 22 . Second, such measures may not be a good indicator of the contact density travelers are subjected to at their destinations, where they are likely to spend more time in proximity of other visitors than the means of travel.…”

Exploring Tourism Recovery in the Post-COVID-19 Period: An Evolutionary Game Theory Approach

“…At the same time, people may prefer exclusivity and choose familiar tourism destinations they perceive as safe for tourism activities, which include scenic spots with fewer tourists and less congestion [8,36]. Moreover, there will be a gradual increase in the willingness of private cars to travel instead of public transport [37].…”