The U.S. Coal Sector between Shale Gas and Renewables: Last Resort Coal Exports?

Abstract

Coal consumption and production have sharply declined in recent years in the U.S., despite political support. Reasons are mostly unfavorable economic conditions for coal, including competition from natural gas and renewables in the power sector, as well as an aging coalfired power plant fleet. The U.S. Energy Information Administration as well as most models of North American energy markets depict continuously high shares of coal-fired power generation over the next decades in their current policies scenarios. We contrast their results with coal sector modelling based on bottom-up data and recent market trends. We project considerably lower near-term coal use for power generation in the U.S. This has significant effects on coal production and mining employment. Allowing new export terminals along the U.S. West Coast could ease cuts in U.S. production. Yet, exports are a highly uncertain strategy because the U.S. could be strongly affected by changes in global demand, for example from non-U.S. climate policy. Furthermore, coal production within the U.S. is likely to experience regional shifts, affecting location and number of mining jobs.

Evaluating Potential Benefits of Flexible Solar Power Generation in the Southern Company System

“…With the increased penetration of affordable and cleaner resources, it is expected that the retirement of old thermal plants (mainly coal plants) will accelerate for both economic and environmental reasons [25]. Following the guidance from SOCO, modest resource addition and retirement assumptions were made in the higher solar scenarios based on utility input.…”

Phases of fossil fuel decline: Diagnostic framework for policy sequencing and feasible transition pathways in resource dependent regions

“…In the technological system, Phase 3 can be recognized by massive retirements of coal assets and a weakened regime with actors exiting or switching to new technologies. Additionally, coal phase-out may be accompanied by fuel substitution as in the case of the Netherlands and the USA where biomass (the Netherlands) and natural gas (the USA) substitutes a large portion of the coal power fleet [108,109]. Competing technologies are now widely available and cheaper than their coal counterparts and dominate the market.…”

“…Other pressures from the broader socio-political and economic setting include stagnating domestic energy demand and stagnating global demand for coal [119,120]. A decline of regime strength is also indicated by the aging coal power plant fleet: the average capacity weighted age in 2020 was 41 years [109] and there is no additional planned coal capacity [121]. Regime strategies differ: in power generation, there is some investment in CCS [109,122]; in other words, an adjustment strategy, but also in nuclear and renewables [123], which indicates a diversification strategy.…”

“…A decline of regime strength is also indicated by the aging coal power plant fleet: the average capacity weighted age in 2020 was 41 years [109] and there is no additional planned coal capacity [121]. Regime strategies differ: in power generation, there is some investment in CCS [109,122]; in other words, an adjustment strategy, but also in nuclear and renewables [123], which indicates a diversification strategy. In coal mining there are ambitions to increase coal exports as domestic demand declines [109,122].…”

“…Regime strategies differ: in power generation, there is some investment in CCS [109,122]; in other words, an adjustment strategy, but also in nuclear and renewables [123], which indicates a diversification strategy. In coal mining there are ambitions to increase coal exports as domestic demand declines [109,122].…”