The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios—Part I: Development of a backcasting methodology with stakeholder participation

Abstract

a b s t r a c tThe Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios project has outlined alternative pathways whereby a 60% reduction in CO 2 emissions from 1990 levels by 2050, a goal adopted by the UK Government, can be achieved. This paper, Part I of a two part paper, describes the methodology used to develop the scenarios and outlines the motivations for the project. The study utilised a backcasting approach, applied in three phases. In phase one, a set of credible and consistent end-points that described a substantially decarbonised energy system in 2050 were generated and reviewed by stakeholders. In phase two, pathways were developed to achieve the transition to the desired end-point. The impacts of the scenarios were assessed in phase three, by means of a deliberative multi-criteria assessment framework. The scenarios to emerge from this process are elaborated in Part II, and conclusions drawn in relation to the feasibility of achieving the 60% target.

Beyond ‘dangerous’ climate change: emission scenarios for a new world

“…One exceeded the lower of the two chosen 23 The pathway of the CCC's [8] most challenging scenario, '2016:4% low', has post-peak emissions reducing at 3.5 per cent per year from all sources. Stern [6] states 'there is likely to be a maximum practical rate at which global emissions can be reduced' pointing to 'examples of sustained emissions cuts of up to 1 per cent per year associated with structural change in energy systems' and that 'cuts in emissions greater than this (1%) have historically been associated only with economic recession or upheaval'.…”

“…Scenario approaches are increasingly used within mitigation and adaptation research for visioning alternative futures, exploring consistency, assessing plausibility and providing policy guidance [23]. These approaches vary in terms of 'backcasting' and 'forecasting', and range from top-down and quantitative through to more bottom-up and qualitative assessments.…”

“…The figure in brackets illustrates a higher probability to take into account the ongoing emissions associated with food production as opposed to greenhouse gas emissions tending to zero. a rate considered politically and economically acceptable 23 (3% reduction per year). For the Annex 1 nations, emissions are assumed to be relatively stable with a peak in 2016 and subsequent emission reductions of 3 per cent per year.…”

Integrated scenarios of energy-related CO2 emissions in Ireland: A multi-sectoral analysis to 2020

“…The scenarios can then be amended where necessary as in the SAS approach. While internal consistency is an important consideration within the scenarios it also has its limitations in a complex world (Mander et al, 2008) and a formal consistency analysis was consequently not applied in this example.…”

Integrated scenarios for energy: A methodology for the short term

“…Mander et al argue against the use of internal consistency within scenarios, proposing that consistency is not a consistent feature of society [46]. The cooccurrence of trend and counter-trend is a more consistent feature of complex societies than consistency itself.…”