The Trump Effect: How 2016 Campaign Rallies Explain Spikes in Hate

Abstract

The 2016 Trump campaign held more than 300 rallies. Our research examines whether these rallies and Trump’s rhetoric served as opportunities for the spread of hate. We measured the number of reported white-supremacist propaganda, anti-Semitic incidents, and extremist behaviors that occurred both leading up to and directly following these campaign events. We contend that Trump’s rhetoric and rallies increased the perceived threat facing white Americans, heightening their white identity, all while justifying violence and extralegal methods to address their grievances and thereby increasing reported bias incidents. We find that counties that hosted a Trump rally experienced an increase in hate-motivated events. We systematically show that Trump political rallies were associated with a limited size but significant rise in the likelihood of reported hate and bias incidents.

Mobilizing the White: White Nationalism and Congressional Politics in the American South

“…As noted above, our antecedent tests in Models 1, 2, and 3 are inconclusive, offering little support for common assertions that districts experiencing relative white socioeconomic decline or racial diversification are particularly favorable to white nationalist activities (Durso & Jacobs, 2013; Goetz et al, 2012; Jefferson & Pryor, 1999; McCann, 2009; McVeigh et al, 2004; Medina et al, 2018; van Dyke & Soule, 2002). Neither do we find evidence that more radically conservative Congressional representation encourages white nationalist mobilization (Feinberg et al, 2019; Fording & Schram, 2020; Piazza, 2020). This latter point is particularly important in its support for our primary findings against expected reservations that WNGs should tend to organize in more radically conservative districts, already sympathetic to their messages.…”

It’s About Hate: Approval of Donald Trump, Racism, Xenophobia and Support for Political Violence

“…On the campaign trail, and then later when in office, Trump habitually employed norms-transgressing violent rhetoric and advocated the use of violence against critics and opponents (Cineas, 2021; Kelly, 2020). Researchers found that counties hosting Trump campaign rallies in the run-up to the 2016 U.S. Presidential election saw subsequent increases in hate-motivated incidents (Feinberg et al, 2019). Trump’s election in 2016 is empirically associated with a surge in hate crimes (Edwards & Rushin, 2018).…”

Emotional response to U.K. political party leader facial displays of affiliation, reward, and ambiguity during Brexit

“…Likewise, the influence of leaders’ nonverbal behavior should be considered throughout a full range of political contexts beyond just North American and European political systems. The effect leaders have on followers through their verbal and nonverbal behavior matters not just in the development and strengthening of social identity but has also been shown to have implications for representative democratic systems where violence on behalf of charismatic leaders threatens stability (Feinberg, Branton, and Martinez‐Ebers 2022; Haslam et al. 2022).…”

“…Likewise, the influence of leaders' nonverbal behavior should be considered throughout a full range of political contexts beyond just North American and European political systems. The effect leaders have on followers through their verbal and nonverbal behavior matters not just in the development and strengthening of social identity but has also been shown to have implications for representative democratic systems where violence on behalf of charismatic leaders threatens stability (Feinberg, Branton, and Martinez-Ebers 2022;Haslam et al 2022). Anytime winning and losing occurs in politics, while taking into account a broader array of facial displays that includes dominance smiles and fear smiles, research should also utilize a broader array of measures that consider psychophysiological response (Bakker, Schumacher, and Homan 2020;Bucy and Bradley 2004;McHugo et al 1985).…”