The trouble with overconfidence.

Moore, Don A.; Healy, Paul J.

doi:10.1037/0033-295x.115.2.502

Cited by 1,858 publications

(1,583 citation statements)

References 196 publications

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“…Prior research has distinguished between different types of unwarranted confidence (i.e., overconfidence; Larrick et al, 2007;Moore & Healy, 2008). In the current research, we focused on overplacement, which is the exaggerated belief that one is better than others.…”

Section: Measuring Overconfidencementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Overconfidence is the possession of inaccurate, overly positive perceptions of one's abilities or knowledge (for a review, see Moore & Healy, 2008). Overconfidence is measured by comparing individuals' self-perceptions of ability to objective, operational criteria such as actual task performance and test scores (e.g., Krueger & Mueller, 2002;Kruger & Dunning, 1999;Larrick, Burson, & Soll, 2007).…”

Section: Overconfidencementioning

confidence: 99%

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When overconfidence is revealed to others: Testing the status-enhancement theory of overconfidence

Kennedy

Anderson

Moore

2013

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes

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133

101

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Section: Measuring Overconfidencementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Overconfidencementioning

confidence: 99%

When overconfidence is revealed to others: Testing the status-enhancement theory of overconfidence

Kennedy

Anderson

Moore

2013

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes

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133

101

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“…des études relativement récentes (Moore & healy, 2008 ;stankov, lee, luo, & hogan, 2012) suggèrent qu'il n'est pas possible a priori de dissocier le réalisme d'un étudiant j de son taux d'exactitude global au test (teG j ), car celui-ci est lié à la difficulté de la tâche. selon ces auteurs, l'étudiant aura tendance à se sous-estimer lors d'une tâche facile et à se surestimer lors d'une tâche difficile.…”

Section: Les Corrélations Et Les Régressionsunclassified

Le réalisme avec degrés de certitude

Prosperi

2016

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Dans le contexte de l’utilisation des degrés de certitude avec des QCM (questions à choix multiples), l’évaluateur désire mesurer l’adéquation entre la façon dont les personnes évaluées (souvent les étudiants) utilisent les degrés de certitude et les instructions fournies pour les utiliser. Cette mesure est appelée « réalisme du sujet ». Actuellement, le calcul du réalisme, quoiqu’élémentaire, présente quelques inconvénients de types calculatoire, conceptuel ou probabiliste. Une nouvelle approche de type probabiliste correspondant mieux à la définition des degrés de certitude et à la façon avec laquelle les étudiants doivent les utiliser est décrite ici. Cette approche aboutira à de nouvelles définitions et méthodes de calcul du réalisme basées sur des arguments statistiquement justifiés. Cette nouvelle définition est plus précise que la précédente, et décrit mieux la capacité de s’autoévaluer et d’utiliser correctement les degrés de certitude. Enfin, elle permettra d’améliorer la fiabilité des indices de qualité liés aux questions utilisant le réalisme, par exemple le rpbisSCT de Gilles (2002).By using confidence marking (CM) along with multiple-choice questions, an examiner needs to measure the consistency and adequacy of CM usage with the instructions given to the student. This measure is called the “realism of the subject”. Although it is easy to compute, the current realism formula entails some conceptual, probabilistic and computational weaknesses. Relying on probability theory and a set of statistically justified arguments, this paper shows a new approach to calculate realism that has a better match to the definition of CM and to the way examiners ask the students to use it. Moreover, the new realism is more precise with respect to the previous and gives a better indication of the student’s self-evaluation skills and his ability to use CM. Finally, this will improve the reliability of items quality indicators which use realism in their calculations such as Gilles’ rpbisSCT (2002).No contexto de utilização dos graus de certeza das QEM (questões de escolha múltipla), o avaliador deseja medir a adequação entre o modo como os sujeitos (frequentemente os estudantes) utilizam os graus de certeza e as instruções fornecidas para os utilizar. Esta medida é designada como “realismo do sujeito”. Atualmente, o cálculo do realismo, embora elementar, apresenta alguns inconvenientes do tipo calculatório, concetual e probabilístico. Descreve-se aqui uma nova abordagem de tipo probabilístico, a qual corresponde melhor à definição de graus de certeza e ao modo com o qual os estudantes os devem utilizar. Esta abordagem conduzirá a novas definições e métodos de cálculo do realismo baseados em argumentos estatisticamente justificados. Esta nova definição é mais precisa que a precedente, e descreve melhor a capacidade de se autovaliar e de utilizar corretamente os graus de certeza. Por fim, permitirá melhorar a fiabilidade dos índices de qualidade ligados às questões que utilizam o realismo, por exemplo o rpbisSCT de Gilles (2002)

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“…Goodie, 2005, p. 482). More specifically, we investigate the overestimation aspect of overconfidence in this paper (Moore & Healy, 2008). 4…”

Section: Accuracy In Sports Predictions and Skill Levelmentioning

confidence: 99%

GAME OVER: Empirical support for soccer bets regulation.

Towfigh

Glöckner

2011

Psychology, Public Policy, and Law

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. www.econstor.eu In many countries, betting in sports is highly regulated. In Germany, however, there are current debates whether regulation should be loosened. A crucial part of the argument is that sport bets could be qualified as 'games of skill' that are considered to be less dangerous by German Law than 'games of chance', and are thus assumed to need less regulation. We explore this hypothesis in three incentivized online studies on soccer betting (N=214) and provide evidence against two crucial parts of this argument. First, we show that there are no overall effects of skill on accuracy in soccer bets and monetary earnings do not increase with skill. Hence, soccer betting cannot be considered a game of skill. Second, we show that soccer betting induces strong overconfidence and illusion of control, particularly for people who assume they have high skill, and that these biases lead to increased betting. Cognitive biases that might cause financial harm for bettors or even lead to problematic or pathological gambling behavior are even stronger for soccer bets compared to bets on the outcome of lotteries. Concerning the main aims of legal regulation for gambling in German law, our results strongly speak for regulation of soccer bets. Terms of use: Documents in M A X P L A N C K S O C I E T YKeywords: Betting, Judgments, Overconfidence, Illusion of Control, Expertise † We thank Christoph Engel, Nathan Ashby, Philipp Weinschenk, Elinor Ostrom, Sebastian Kube, Felix Bierbrauer and Katharina Towfigh for valuable comments on this research project and on earlier drafts of this paper. We are grateful to Kristina Schönfeldt for screening the legal literature.

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The trouble with overconfidence.

Cited by 1,858 publications

References 196 publications

When overconfidence is revealed to others: Testing the status-enhancement theory of overconfidence

When overconfidence is revealed to others: Testing the status-enhancement theory of overconfidence

Le réalisme avec degrés de certitude

GAME OVER: Empirical support for soccer bets regulation.

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