The transmission mechanism theory of disease dynamics: Its aims, assumptions and limitations

Garira, Winston; Maregere, Bothwell

doi:10.1016/j.idm.2022.12.001

Cited by 3 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 40 publications

(66 reference statements)

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“…The study utilizes the transmission mechanism theory of disease dynamics [8]. Therefore, the theory seeks to help individuals understand a single-level interaction between a pathogen, an organism, and its environment.…”

Section: Theoretical Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The first assumption asserts that infectious disease patterns result from two transmission models: direct transmission and environmental transmission processes. The direct transmission of disease is mediated through the direct contact of an infected individual with a vulnerable individual [8]. However, in environmental transmission, a disease is transmitted when a vulnerable individual comes into contact with an environment contaminated by an infectious pathogen.…”

Section: Theoretical Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The second assumption of the theory is that a communicable disease has seven primary levels of organization it can emanate at, in a hierarchical order from the simplest to the most complex: at the cell level, the tissue level, the organ, level, the microecosystem level, the organism level, the community level, and at the microecosystem level [8]. The third assumption is that the spread of an illness can be local through a pathogen or both local and global spread of the infectious agent [8]. The local spread of the infection is through direct contact between the vulnerable victim and the infectious agent.…”

Section: Theoretical Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, global transmission of the ailment happens when the infectious agents are transported by other agents like wind, which blows it over distances locally, nationally, regionally, or globally. The fourth assumption is that a virulent infection results from interactions between the host, the disease agent, and the environment [8]. This may help explain the relationship between high population density and COVID-19 infections and the influence of temperature on COVID-19 infections.…”

Section: Theoretical Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Social and Environmental Factors Influencing COVID-19 Transmission and Mortalities in Developing and Developed Nations

Chowdhury,

Chowdhury

2024

ebph

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Background: The study sought to establish environmental and social factors that influenced the transmission and mortalities of COVID-19 in developing and developed nations. The factors that were assessed included temperature, average age of the population, urbanization, population density, and percentage of old-aged people in the population. The dependent variables were COVID-19 transmission and COVID-19-related deaths. Methods: The study employed a pragmatism research philosophy. It also relied on a deductive research approach and a descriptive research design. It adopted a mixed-method approach as it used both qualitative and quantitative data. It was a cross-sectional study, given its data measurement at a particular point in time. Data was analyzed and presented using descriptive techniques. Results: Statistical analyses were conducted to quantify the relationships between various factors and COVID-19 outcomes. A Kendall’s Tau test revealed a robust negative correlation between COVID-19 cases and temperature (Tb = -0.560, p<0.005). This result was further confirmed by Spearman’s rank correlation, showing a strong negative correlation with r(13) = -0.684, p<0.007. Similarly, a strong negative correlation was observed between COVID-19 deaths and average annual temperature using both Kendall’s Tau (Tb = -0.495, p<0.014) and Spearman’s rank correlation (r(13) = -0.648, p<0.012). Age emerged as a significant factor, with a strong positive correlation found between age and both COVID-19 infections (Tb = 0.516, p<0.010; r(13) = 0.670, p<0.009) and COVID-19-related mortalities (r(13) = 0.516, p<0.029). Urbanization was also positively correlated with COVID-19 infections (Tb = 0.530, p<0.008; r(13) = 0.640, p<0.014) and COVID-19 deaths (Tb = 0.398, p<0.048; r(13) = 0.561, p<0.037). Interestingly, no significant correlation was found between population density and COVID-19 infections or deaths in both developed and developing countries, as evidenced by Kendall’s Tau (TB = 0.331, p<0.1; Tb = 0.133, p<0.511) and Spearman’s rank correlation (r(13) = 0.425, p<0.130; r(13) = 0.161, p<0.583), respectively. Moreover, the percentage of elderly individuals in a country exhibited a strong positive correlation with both COVID-19 infections (Tb = 0.464, p<0.021; r(13) = 0.642, p<0.013) and COVID-19-related deaths (r(13) = 0.541, p<0.046).Conclusion: The study focused on social, demographic, and environmental factors influencing COVID-19 incidence and mortality in developing and developed nations. The study highlights significant COVID-19 transmission and mortality disparities between developed and developing countries. Developed countries exhibited higher infection and mortality rates, coupled with elevated death rates per million and infection rates per million, as compared to their developing counterparts. The research identified a correlation between lower average annual temperatures and increased mortality in developed countries. Contrary to this, high average annual temperatures were associated with a decline in COVID-19 infections.Moreover, developed countries, characterized by higher urbanization levels, population densities, and percentages of aged individuals, experienced elevated COVID-19 infection rates. The study also unveiled a positive correlation between age and COVID-19 infections, with developed countries hosting significantly older populations than their developing counterparts. However, population density did not clearly correlate with COVID-19 infections or deaths.

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Section: Theoretical Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Theoretical Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Theoretical Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Theoretical Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Social and Environmental Factors Influencing COVID-19 Transmission and Mortalities in Developing and Developed Nations

Chowdhury,

Chowdhury

2024

ebph

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“…In the context of the single-scale modelling of a malaria disease system at the whole organism level, the quantity R 0 quantifies the transmission process of this disease system at the macroscale only [30]. However, unlike the reproductive numbers derived from singlescale models of disease dynamics [30], which quantify the transmission process only, here, the reproductive number derived from the multiscale model (1) quantifies all four disease processes of the pathogen-centred disease system form of the malaria disease system-[a.] the super-infection by pathogen process, [b.]…”

Section: Characterising the Multiscale Dynamics Of The Pathogen-centr...mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Universal Theory for Multiscale Modelling of Infectious Disease Dynamics

Garira,

Muzhinji

2023

Mathematics

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The replication-transmission relativity theory, currently used to inform the development of multiscale models of infectious disease dynamics, needs a revision and extension to accommodate new basic science and clinical information about infectious disease dynamics. In this article, we revise and extend the replication-transmission relativity theory into a new scientific theory of infectious disease dynamics called the universal theory for the multiscale modelling of infectious disease dynamics. This new theory states that, for every host–pathogen interaction that results in an infectious disease system, there is no privileged or absolute scale of a disease system form that would determine the dynamics of the infectious disease system, only interactions between the scales of a level of organisation of the pathogen-centred disease system form and the scales of the corresponding levels of organisation of the host-centred disease system form. We further explain the utility of this theory, which is reflected in its flexibility and ability to incorporate new information and explain previous information that could not be accounted for by the replication-transmission relativity theory of infectious disease dynamics.

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Application of the replication–transmission relativity theory in the development of multiscale models of infectious disease dynamics

Garira,

Muzhinji

2023

Journal of Biological Dynamics

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The transmission mechanism theory of disease dynamics: Its aims, assumptions and limitations

Cited by 3 publications

References 40 publications

Social and Environmental Factors Influencing COVID-19 Transmission and Mortalities in Developing and Developed Nations

Social and Environmental Factors Influencing COVID-19 Transmission and Mortalities in Developing and Developed Nations

The Universal Theory for Multiscale Modelling of Infectious Disease Dynamics

Application of the replication–transmission relativity theory in the development of multiscale models of infectious disease dynamics

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