The trade margins of Chinese agricultural exports to ASEAN and their determinants

Sun, Zhilu; Li, Xiande

doi:10.1016/s2095-3119(18)62084-2

Cited by 32 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Exports of food products experienced trade creation in intra-bloc flows, trade creation in imports from extra-bloc, and no evidence of export expansion with extra bloc. Our findings are consistent with the Indonesia-ASEAN case , Australia-ASEAN Plus case (Timsina and Culas, 2019), and to a lesser extent to the China-ASEAN (Sun and Li, 2018;Yang and Martinez-Zarzoso, 2014).…”

Section: Foodsupporting

confidence: 88%

Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Effects: The Case of the Asean Plus Six Free Trade Area

Handoyo

Sugiharti

Esquivias

2021

BEMP

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This study examines whether trade agreements promoted under the ASEAN+6 over the period 2007-2017 supported trade creation and/or trade diversion effects within three export product groups, namely, manufactured goods, primary products, and natural resources-based goods. Using a gravity model, we note that primary products offer pure trade creation (greater intra-bloc and extra-bloc trade). Manufactured products experienced trade creation in intra-bloc and extrabloc exports, while natural resources-based goods show trade creation in intraregional exports and trade creation in imports from extra-bloc.

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Section: Foodsupporting

confidence: 88%

Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Effects: The Case of the Asean Plus Six Free Trade Area

Handoyo

Sugiharti

Esquivias

2021

BEMP

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“…1) The rapid rise in agricultural exports as new markers emerge (e.g., China, India, Sheperd, 2019). 2) A change in consumer behavior in both emerging countries (as income increased rapidly) and in advanced ones (Sun & Li, 2018). 3) Major technological changes that allows more extensive trade in processed food (Athukorala & Jayasuriya, 2003).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of determinants of Indonesian agricultural exports

Sugiharti¹,

Purwono²,

Esquivias³

2020

JESI

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This paper analyses determinants of agricultural exports and imports from Indonesia, including a set of demand and supply factors capturing effects of income, market size, prices, tariffs, exchange rates and variables related to logistics, competitiveness, trade policy, and innovation. A specific focus is on trade creation and diversion effects possibly arising as Indonesia experienced a deep liberalization of markets through the implementation of multiple Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). A gravity model helps to analyze the determinants of trade and the impacts of the various trade agreements, applied to two categories of agricultural exports: raw goods and food. The dataset comprises 50 countries with data on exports and imports from 2007 until 2017. The results find trade creation effects for both categories, with larger effects in exports within agricultural raw goods, and higher trade creation effects through imports in food. Indonesia also experienced trade expansion with non-free trade partners, suggesting that demand variables (e.g., income, market size, sophistication) are a more critical driver of growth rather than agreements. Price factors affect agricultural goods, with food products experiencing elastic price demand, while raw goods are affected by prices and exchange rate. Gains in competitiveness, logistics performance, and innovation is supporting agricultural exports (imports as well), although Indonesia is behind most of its trade partners. The current implementation of the FTA should be critically evaluated concerning food products as imports have expanded more rapidly than exports, and domestic goods may have experienced pressure from liberalization.

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“…The number of observations analyzed in this study is not very large, and there may be complicated panel error structure problems in the observations’ data, such as synchronous correlation, heteroscedasticity, and series correlation [ 92 ]. For dealing with these problems effectively, Beck and Katz [ 93 ] developed the weighted panel corrected standard errors (PCSE) method.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Trade Openness on Food Security: Evidence from Panel Data for Central Asian Countries

Sun

Zhang

2021

Foods

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The problem of food insecurity has become increasingly critical across the world since 2015, which threatens the lives and livelihoods of people around the world and has historically been a challenge confined primarily to developing countries, to which the countries of Central Asia, as typical transition countries, cannot be immune either. Under this context, many countries including Central Asian countries have recognized the importance of trade openness to ensure adequate levels of food security and are increasingly reliant on international trade for food security. Using the 2001–2018 panel data of Central Asian countries, based on food security’s four pillars (including availability, access, stability, and utilization), this study empirically estimates the impact of trade openness and other factors on food security and traces a U-shaped (or inverted U-shaped) relationship between trade openness and food security by adopting a panel data fixed effect model as the baseline model, and then conducts the robustness test by using the least-squares (LS) procedure for the pooled data and a dynamic panel data (DPD) analysis with the generalized method of moments (GMM) approach, simultaneously. The results show that: (1) a U-shaped relationship between trade openness and the four pillars of food security was found, which means that beyond a certain threshold of trade openness, food security status tends to improve in Central Asian countries; (2) gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, GDP growth, and agricultural productivity have contributed to the improvement of food security. Employment in agriculture, arable land, freshwater withdrawals in agriculture, population growth, natural disasters, and inflation rate have negative impacts on food security; and (3) this study confirms that trade policy reforms can finally be conducive to improving food security in Central Asian countries. However, considering the effects of other factors, potential negative effects of trade openness, and vulnerability of global food trade network, ensuring reasonable levels of food self-sufficiency is still very important for Central Asian countries to achieve food security. Our research findings can provide scientific support for sustainable food system strategies in Central Asian countries.

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The trade margins of Chinese agricultural exports to ASEAN and their determinants

Cited by 32 publications

References 29 publications

Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Effects: The Case of the Asean Plus Six Free Trade Area

Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Effects: The Case of the Asean Plus Six Free Trade Area

Analysis of determinants of Indonesian agricultural exports

Impact of Trade Openness on Food Security: Evidence from Panel Data for Central Asian Countries

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