The Total Electricity Energy Production of the World, European Union, and Turkey: Projections and Comparison

Akpınar, Adem; Tavşan, Filiz; Kömürcü, Murat İhsan; Filiz, M.H; Kaygusuz, Kami̇l

doi:10.1080/15567240802532767

Cited by 8 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Comparison between the present study and other studies for forecasting of Turkey's electricity consumption Figure 4 presents a comparison between the present study and other study for forecasting of Turkey's electricity generation from 2017 to 2027. It is obvious that the present study gives higher values than the quadratic model of Akpınar et al's study [23]. Also, results of the F-test analysis show that p-value between the present study and the other study [23] is higher than 0.05 which means that there are no significant differences among the results.…”

Section: Resultscontrasting

confidence: 48%

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Forecasting of Turkey’s Electricity Generation and Consumption With Grey Prediction Method

Şahin

2018

Mugla Journal of Science and Technology

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The aim of this study is forecasting of Turkey's electricity generation and consumption for the period 2017-2027. To achieve this, Turkey's electricity generation and consumption for the period 1996-2016 was modelled using Grey prediction method GM(1,1). Results showed that the small error probability (p) and posterior error ratio (C) values of GM(1,1) model for Turkey's electricity generation were obtained as 0.12 and 0.97, respectively, and 0.11 and 0.97, respectively for Turkey's electricity consumption. So, the level of established GM(1,1) models for Turkey's electricity generation and Turkey's electricity consumption is in good level. Additionally, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values of GM(1,1) models for Turkey's electricity generation and consumption were obtained as 3.12% and 3.08%, respectively. Results of F-test showed that p-value of GM(1,1) model for Turkey's electricity generation and consumption was 0.48. According to these results, GM(1,1) models are suitable for prediction of Turkey's electricity generation and consumption. Furthermore, the average annual grow rates of Turkey's electricity generation and consumption for the period 2017-2027 were forecasted as 5.25% and 5.58%, respectively. In addition to this, Turkey's electricity generation and consumption were forecasted as 405310GWh and 344672GWh, respectively, for 2023.

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Section: Resultscontrasting

confidence: 48%

“…The quadratic model from Akpınar et al [23] The present study Turkey's electricity generation and consumption for the period 1996-2016 was modelled using GM (1,1). Secondly, the established GM(1,1) models for both Turkey's electricity generation and consumption were tested with various statistical parameters.…”

Section: Yearsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting of Turkey’s Electricity Generation and Consumption With Grey Prediction Method

Şahin

2018

Mugla Journal of Science and Technology

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“…In Europe, electricity production is expected to increase by 1.3% every year until 2030, at which point the European Union is forecast to produce 8.41% of the world's electricity compared to 17.2% in 2005. 22 In 2006, hydroelectric energy was the greatest renewable form of electricity used and represented about 2%, compared to 3% expected in 2020, of the world's energy supply and approximately 15% of the world's electricity. 23 Conversely, global oil production in 2030 will be lower than it is today, which indicates that the world's oil production has peaked and that the age of oil is coming to an end.…”

Section: Energy Production and Consumption Around The Worldmentioning

confidence: 99%

A transversal perspective on global energy production and consumption: An approach based on convergence theory

Martinho

2018

Energy & Environment

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The transformation of economies and societies associated with technological advances made during the 20th century has not only significantly increased global energy consumption but also placed greater pressure upon production using non-renewable sources. Such circumstances have generated new challenges and urged governments as well as firms to identify and promote new sources of renewable energy. In response to those trends, the chief objective of the study reported here was to analyse the current global framework of the production and consumption of energy obtained from different origins in order to identify opportunities and constraints regarding energy production and consumption that exist among various countries. To that end, data from the World Bank regarding the production and consumption of global energy were analysed in light of the neoclassical and endogenous growth theories of absolute and conditional convergence, respectively, and in terms of panel data models. To reconcile the availability of data across the various countries, data for the period 1990–2013 were used. The data show signs of relevant dispersion among countries and evidence of sigma convergence in the majority of variables associated with global energy supply and demand. Conversely, other evidence indicates a significant absolute convergence of the global production and consumption of energy. Put differently, although significant differences in energy production and consumption among the world’s countries exist, so do signs of convergence, namely, that lower values in some countries are by way of approximation of those verified in countries with higher values. That situation is not necessarily detrimental in terms of renewable sources of energy; however, it is not the case in every context (in some cases the convergence is for the fossil fuel energy, for example). From a strategic perspective, the results recommend policies better customised at the various levels of decision making to promote renewable sources of energy.

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“…The time series models have a wide range of uses among the forecasting methodologies because of being simplicity based on past data available . There are many studies about forecasting of Turkey's energy demand , electricity consumption , CO 2 emissions and especially electricity generation . But there is no study about forecasting of Turkey's electricity generation in estimation of capacity factor.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting of Turkey's electricity generation and CO₂ emissions in estimating capacity factor

Şahin

2018

Env Prog and Sustain Energy

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In this study, Turkey's electricity generation between 2017 and 2021 is forecasted. To achieve this, past data of capacity factor of thermal, hydro, geothermal, wind, and solar power plants from 2006 to 2016 is correlated by using exponentially damped sinusoidal approximation. Estimated installed capacity values of electricity generation from 2017 to 2021 are taken from Turkish Electricity Transmission Company (TEİAŞ). The capacity factor and electricity generation of each power plants are forecasted from 2017 to 2021 for two different scenarios which are based on TEİAŞ's 5‐year installed capacity projection. According to scenario 1 and 2, Turkey's electricity generation is projected in the range of 332.5–362.9 TWh and 322.0–345.2 TWh, respectively. Additionally, projected CO2 emissions due to electricity generation are estimated in the range of 178.7–199.2 million tons and 171.6–187.1 million tons for the Scenario 1 and Scenario 2, respectively. Also, this study is compared with Turkey's vision 2023 electricity generation targets. © 2018 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Environ Prog, 38: 56–65, 2019

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The Total Electricity Energy Production of the World, European Union, and Turkey: Projections and Comparison

Cited by 8 publications

References 9 publications

Forecasting of Turkey’s Electricity Generation and Consumption With Grey Prediction Method

Forecasting of Turkey’s Electricity Generation and Consumption With Grey Prediction Method

A transversal perspective on global energy production and consumption: An approach based on convergence theory

Forecasting of Turkey's electricity generation and CO₂ emissions in estimating capacity factor

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The Total Electricity Energy Production of the World, European Union, and Turkey: Projections and Comparison

Cited by 8 publications

References 9 publications

Forecasting of Turkey’s Electricity Generation and Consumption With Grey Prediction Method

Forecasting of Turkey’s Electricity Generation and Consumption With Grey Prediction Method

A transversal perspective on global energy production and consumption: An approach based on convergence theory

Forecasting of Turkey's electricity generation and CO2 emissions in estimating capacity factor

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Forecasting of Turkey's electricity generation and CO₂ emissions in estimating capacity factor