The Tinker AFB Tornadoes of March 1948

Abstract

During March of 1948 Tinker Air Force Base was hit directly by two tornadoes during a period of only five days. The first tornado was the most destructive, to that point, ever to occur in Oklahoma. The second storm caused considerable additional damage and was remarkable in another, more significant, way. The first operational tornado forecast had been issued by Air Force Officers E. J. Fawbush and R. C. Miller a few hours before the tornado moved across the base. This extremely unusual meteorological situation, two tornadoes hitting the same location within five days, coupled with the fortuitous forecast of the event, had a profound impact on the evolution of operational severe weather forecasting in the United States. These events eventually stimulated the initiation of public severe thunderstorm forecasting by the Weather Bureau.Miller often presented anecdotal accounts of the events leading up to the landmark forecast, for example, in seminars and interviews during a visit to the National Severe Storms Laboratory during March 1994. He often stressed that the remarkable similarity of the synoptic settings on 21 and 25 March 1948 helped give him and Fawbush the courage to issue the now famous forecast. In this paper the synoptic environments that led to the two tornado occurrences at Tinker are analyzed and discussed. There were indeed similarities; however, it is surprising how different many aspects of the storm settings actually were. Similarities and important differences are illustrated with a series of synoptic surface and upper-air charts. It is likely that development of a base severe weather plan following the tornado disaster of 20 March, in addition to the presence and exhortations of General F. S. Borum at the base weather station on 25 March, provided as great a motivation for the first tornado forecast as did the similarity of the synoptic settings.

Improved Accuracy in Severe Storm Forecasting by the Severe Local Storms Unit during the Last 25 Years: Then versus Now

“…What began as a one time ''miracle forecast'' by Fawbush and Miller on 25 March 1948 (Maddox andCrisp 1999), gradually evolved into a highly specialized organization (SELS/SPC) within the NWS dedicated to the difficult task of forecasting conditions favorable for the development of severe local storms anywhere in the 48 conterminous states. The watch process has contributed to the saving of many lives over the years and its terminology has found a place in our everyday vocabulary.…”

Historical Analysis of U.S. Tornado Fatalities (1808–2017): Population, Science, and Technology

“…Positive spinoffs from World War II included the advent of radar as well as the subsequent development of the electronic computer, both representing technological advancements to assist future tornado prediction and warning. Also, this period experienced what many still call today ''the best tornado forecast ever made'' namely, the Fawbush and Miller prediction for Tinker Air Force Base in 1948 (see Maddox and Crisp 1999).…”

The Tornado Warning Process: A Review of Current Research, Challenges, and Opportunities

“…The first tornado warning was issued on 25 March 1948 by U.S. Air Force officers E. Fawbush and R. Miller at Tinker Air Force Base in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, and was remarkably successful (Miller and Crisp 1999b;Maddox and Crisp 1999). The first tornado warning was issued on 25 March 1948 by U.S. Air Force officers E. Fawbush and R. Miller at Tinker Air Force Base in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, and was remarkably successful (Miller and Crisp 1999b;Maddox and Crisp 1999).…”