The Time Variation of the Maize Yield in Precise Operation Section

Abstract

Abstract. In this paper, a variety of curve estimation method is used to predict the time series characteristics of Maize Yield in more than 20 years, and it is found that each prediction method has its applicable conditions and applicable scope. Comparison of the parameters of the estimated parameters of the four kinds of curves found that the effect of the three curve estimation is optimal, so the function of the three Cubic is more appropriate to observe the value of the fitting. If the ARIMA model is used to predict the yield of maize, the AIC (2, 1, 1) (ARIMA) has achieved good results in the study. The conclusions can provide some guidance and practical significance for the current and even future production management decision.