The Time Trend Temperature–Mortality as a Factor of Uncertainty Analysis of Impacts of Future Heat Waves

Linares, Cristina; Mirón, I.J.; Montero, Juan Carlos; Criado‐Álvarez, Juan José; Tobías, Aurelio; Díaz, Julio

doi:10.1289/ehp.1308042

Cited by 22 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Most of the studies providing estimates on the impact of climate change assume that the association between heat and health risks, as estimated from historical data, applies identically to the future ( Huang et al 2011 ). However, uncertainty about the actual exposure–response relationship between temperature and mortality occurring in the future is acknowledged as one of the most critical aspects for projecting the health impact in climate change studies ( Linares et al 2014 ; Wu et al 2014 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal Variation in Heat–Mortality Associations: A Multicountry Study

Gasparrini

Lee

Hashizume

et al. 2015

Environ Health Perspect

356

272

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BackgroundRecent investigations have reported a decline in the heat-related mortality risk during the last decades. However, these studies are frequently based on modeling approaches that do not fully characterize the complex temperature–mortality relationship, and are limited to single cities or countries.ObjectivesWe assessed the temporal variation in heat–mortality associations in a multi-country data set using flexible modelling techniques.MethodsWe collected data for 272 locations in Australia, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States, with a total 20,203,690 deaths occurring in summer months between 1985 and 2012. The analysis was based on two-stage time-series models. The temporal variation in heat–mortality relationships was estimated in each location with time-varying distributed lag nonlinear models, expressed through an interaction between the transformed temperature variables and time. The estimates were pooled by country through multivariate meta-analysis.ResultsMortality risk due to heat appeared to decrease over time in several countries, with relative risks associated to high temperatures significantly lower in 2006 compared with 1993 in the United States, Japan, and Spain, and a nonsignificant decrease in Canada. Temporal changes are difficult to assess in Australia and South Korea due to low statistical power, and we found little evidence of variation in the United Kingdom. In the United States, the risk seems to be completely abated in 2006 for summer temperatures below their 99th percentile, but some significant excess persists for higher temperatures in all the countries.ConclusionsWe estimated a statistically significant decrease in the relative risk for heat-related mortality in 2006 compared with 1993 in the majority of countries included in the analysis.CitationGasparrini A, Guo Y, Hashizume M, Kinney PL, Petkova EP, Lavigne E, Zanobetti A, Schwartz JD, Tobias A, Leone M, Tong S, Honda Y, Kim H, Armstrong BG. 2015. Temporal variation in heat–mortality associations: a multicountry study. Environ Health Perspect 123:1200–1207; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409070

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal Variation in Heat–Mortality Associations: A Multicountry Study

Gasparrini

Lee

Hashizume

et al. 2015

Environ Health Perspect

356

272

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“…Such temperature increase is expected to continue in the future with a projected global temperature change of about 1.4°C to 4.8°C (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014) and a regional response over the Sahel of about 2°C to 6°C (Sylla, Nikiema, et al, 2016) when considering the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 concentration scenarios (Moss et al, 2012). As a result, hot extremes will become more common and deadly in many regions across the world (Gasparrini et al, 2017;Im et al, 2017;Lee & Kim, 2016;Mora et al, 2017) and in tropical Africa (Giorgi et al, 2014;Liu et al, 2017;Russo et al, 2014), with their frequency, duration, and magnitude depending on the underlying forcing scenario (Anderson et al, 2018;Dosio, 2017;Linares et al, 2014;Russo et al, 2016). Such hot extremes can have widespread impacts on human and natural systems, thereby challenging the adaptive capacity and resilience of local populations and activities (Ceccherini et al, 2017;Fontaine et al, 2013;Pal & Eltahir, 2016;Sultan & Gaetani, 2016;Zougmoré et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Heat Stress Under 1.5 °C and 2 °C Global Warming Scenarios Creates Unprecedented Discomfort for Humans in West Africa

et al. 2018

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Heat and discomfort indices are applied to the multimodel ensemble mean of COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment-Africa regional climate model projections to investigate future changes in heat stress and the proportion of human population at risk under 1.5°C and 2°C global warming scenarios over West Africa. The results show that heat stress of category Extreme Caution is projected to extend spatially (up to 25%) over most of the Gulf of Guinea, Sahel, and Sahara desert areas, with different regional coverage during the various seasons. Similarly, the projected seasonal proportion of human population at discomfort substantially increases to more than 50% over most of the region. In particular, in June-August over the Sahel and the western Sahara desert, new areas (15% of West Africa) where most of the population is at risk emerge. This indicates that from 50% to almost everyone over most of the Sahel countries and part of the western Sahara desert is at risk of possible heat cramp, heat exhaustion, and heat stroke in future climate scenarios. These conditions become more frequent and are accompanied by the emergence of days with dangerous heat stress category during which everyone feels discomfort and is vulnerable to a likely heat cramp and heat exhaustion. In general, all the above features are more extended and more frequent in the 2°C than in the 1.5°C scenario. Protective measures are thus required for outdoor workers, occupational settings in hot environments, and people engaged in strenuous activities.

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“…Most previous studies estimated the risk of DTR on mortality using historical data (Kan et al 2007b;Lim et al 2012a) and the estimated impact of DTR was assumed to be consistent overtime. However, this assumption might not be suitable in predicting the health impacts of climate change because several factors, including intrinsic biological (e.g., disease/nutrition status) and extrinsic factors (e.g., forecast and infrastructure improvements, local environment, or social system conditions), can modify the population's vulnerability to absolute temperature and rapid temperature change within a day (Gasparrini et al 2015a;Linares et al 2014;Wu et al 2014). Therefore, it is important to assess temporal change in the DTR-related mortality relationship to examine whether people are adapted or mal-adapted to DTR.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mortality burden of diurnal temperature range and its temporal changes: A multi-country study

Lee

Bell

Gasparrini

et al. 2018

Environment International

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Although diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a key index of climate change, few studies have reported the health burden of DTR and its temporal changes at a multi-country scale. Therefore, we assessed the attributable risk fraction of DTR on mortality and its temporal variations in a multi-country data set. We collected time-series data covering mortality and weather variables from 308 cities in 10 countries from 1972 to 2013. The temporal change in DTR-related mortality was estimated for each city with a time-varying distributed lag model. Estimates for each city were pooled using a multivariate meta-analysis. The results showed that the attributable fraction of total mortality to DTR was 2.5% (95% eCI: 2.3-2.7%) over the entire study period. In all countries, the attributable fraction increased from 2.4% (2.1-2.7%) to 2.7% (2.4-2.9%) between the first and last study years. This study found that DTR has significantly contributed to mortality in all the countries studied, and this attributable fraction has significantly increased over time in the USA, the UK, Spain, and South Korea. Therefore, because the health burden of DTR is not likely to reduce in the near future, countermeasures are needed to alleviate its impact on human health.

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The Time Trend Temperature–Mortality as a Factor of Uncertainty Analysis of Impacts of Future Heat Waves

Cited by 22 publications

References 7 publications

Temporal Variation in Heat–Mortality Associations: A Multicountry Study

Temporal Variation in Heat–Mortality Associations: A Multicountry Study

Projected Heat Stress Under 1.5 °C and 2 °C Global Warming Scenarios Creates Unprecedented Discomfort for Humans in West Africa

Mortality burden of diurnal temperature range and its temporal changes: A multi-country study

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