The Threshold Effect of Swine Epidemics on the Pig Supply in China

Jia, Yunfei; Sun, Wenshan; Su, Guifang; Jun-guo, Hua; He, Zhao

doi:10.3390/ani12192595

Cited by 1 publication

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References 29 publications

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“…Since the beginning of the new century, China's hog industry has experienced five major cyclical price fluctuations, especially after China acceded to the WTO in 2006. The fluctuation of pork prices intensified [7], and the hog cycle damaged the welfare of both supply and demand, leading to the imbalance of national economic development and the asymmetry of output-input [8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effect of Hog Futures in Stabilizing Hog Production

Li,

Wang,

Shen

et al. 2024

Agriculture

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China’s large-scale hog farmers are playing an increasingly important role in promoting the stable development of the hog industry. Taking large-scale hog enterprises as samples, based on hog sales data from January 2019 to July 2022, this paper adopts a two-way fixed-effects model to test the impact, mechanism, and heterogeneity of hog futures on the production stability of large-scale hog farmers. The study found that hog futures help promote stable production of large-scale farmers. This finding still holds after a series of robustness tests. The mechanism analysis found that, first, hog futures help large-scale farmers expand their risk management factor inputs. Second, hog futures help reduce the impact of hog price risk on production. Finally, hog futures help stabilize farmers’ production expectations. The moderating effects analysis found that the stabilizing effect of hog futures will enhance as farmers’ share of hog farming operations increases. Heterogeneity analysis found that when hog prices fluctuate negatively, hog futures help promote the stable production of large-scale farmers. When hog prices fluctuate positively, the production stabilization effect of hog futures is not obvious. Therefore, hog enterprises should be encouraged to participate in hog futures hedging transactions to promote stable hog production.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%