The Threats of Climate Change: Implication for Food Crisis in Sub-Sahara Africa

Balogun, Olubunmi Lawrence; Yusuf, S. A.; Ayantoye, Kayode

doi:10.1007/978-94-007-6719-5_6

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…Furthermore, both models yield a dip in NPP in 2002 when the latest major drought befell the region (see Fig. A2) (Balogun et al, 2013). This favors the application of BME since it mimics reasonably well the behavior of LPJ-GUESS, which exhibits good skills in reproducing vegetation dynamics of the Sahel region (Seaquist et al, 2009).…”

Section: A2 Model Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 81%

Future supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel

Sallaba¹,

Olin²,

Engström³

et al. 2016

Preprint

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Abstract. In the 21st century, climate change in combination with increasing demand, mainly from population growth, will exert greater pressure on the ecosystems of the Sahel to supply food and feed resources. The balance between supply and demand (annual biomass required for human consumption) serves as a key metric for quantifying basic resource shortfalls over broad regions. Here we apply an exploratory modelling framework to analyze the variations in the timing and geography of different NPP (net primary production) supply-demand scenarios (with distinct assumptions determining supply and demand) for the 21st century Sahel. We achieve this by coupling a simple NPP supply model (forced with projections from four representative concentration pathways) with a global, reduced-complexity demand model (driven by socio-economic data and assumptions derived from five shared socio-economic pathways). For the scenario that deviates least from current socio-economic and climate trends, we find that per capita NPP outstrips its supply in the 2070s, while by 2050, half the countries in the Sahel experience NPP shortfalls. We also find that despite variations in the timing of the onset of NPP shortfalls, demand cannot consistently be met across the majority of scenarios. Moreover, large between-country variations are shown across the scenarios where by the year 2050, some countries consistently experience shortage, others surplus while yet others shift from surplus to shortage. At the local level (i.e. grid cell) hotspots of total NPP shortfall consistently occur in the same locations across all scenarios, but vary in size and magnitude. These hotspots are linked to population density and high demand. For all scenarios, total simulated NPP supply doubles by 2050 but is outpaced by increasing demand due to a combination of population growth and adoption of a diets rich in animal products. Finally, variations in the timing of onset and end of supply shortfalls stem from the assumptions that underpin the shared socio-economic pathways rather than the representative concentration pathways. Our results suggest that the UN sustainable development goals for eradicating hunger are at high risk for failure. This emphasizes the importance of policy interventions such as the implementation of sustainable and healthy diets, family planning, reducing yield gaps, and encouraging transfer of resources to impoverished areas via trade relations.

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Section: A2 Model Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 81%

Future supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel

Sallaba¹,

Olin²,

Engström³

et al. 2016

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…dip in NPP in 2002 when the latest major drought affected the region (see Fig. A5; Balogun et al, 2013). In Fig.…”

Section: A22 Bme Performance In the Sahelmentioning

confidence: 95%

Future supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel

et al. 2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. In the 21st century, climate change in combination with increasing demand, mainly from population growth, will exert greater pressure on the ecosystems of the Sahel to supply food and feed resources. The balance between supply and demand, defined as the annual biomass required for human consumption, serves as a key metric for quantifying basic resource shortfalls over broad regions.Here we apply an exploratory modelling framework to analyse the variations in the timing and geography of different NPP (net primary production) supply-demand scenarios, with distinct assumptions determining supply and demand, for the 21st century Sahel. We achieve this by coupling a simple NPP supply model forced with projections from four representative concentration pathways with a global, reduced-complexity demand model driven by socio-economic data and assumptions derived from five shared socio-economic pathways.For the scenario that deviates least from current socio-economic and climate trends, we find that per capita NPP begins to outstrip supply in the 2040s, while by 2050 half the countries in the Sahel experience NPP shortfalls. We also find that despite variations in the timing of the onset of NPP shortfalls, demand cannot consistently be met across the majority of scenarios. Moreover, large between-country variations are shown across the scenarios, in which by the year 2050 some countries consistently experience shortage or surplus, while others shift from surplus to shortage. At the local level (i.e. grid cell), hotspots of total NPP shortfall consistently occur in the same locations across all scenarios but vary in size and magnitude. These hotspots are linked to population density and high demand. For all scenarios, total simulated NPP supply doubles by 2050 but is outpaced by increasing demand due to a combination of population growth and the adoption of diets rich in animal products. Finally, variations in the timing of the onset and end of supply shortfalls stem from the assumptions that underpin the shared socio-economic pathways rather than the representative concentration pathways.Our results suggest that the UN sustainable development goals for eradicating hunger are at high risk for failure. This emphasizes the importance of policy interventions such as the implementation of sustainable and healthy diets, family planning, reducing yield gaps, and encouraging the transfer of resources to impoverished areas via trade relations.

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“…According to Balogun et al (2013) "The significance of this variability is clear when we consider that in sub-Saharan Africa, agricultural production accounts for up to 90 % of food needs. Socio-economic conditions and the adverse impact of unpredictable weather on the agricultural production of communities in sub-Sahara Africa have long been recognized as an important cause of malnutrition in the region."…”

Section: Insights From the Existing Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The weather events have destroyed vital ecosystems, infrastructure, property, and people's livelihoods and sometimes result in fatality. These negative results of weather events produce poverty (Balogun et al 2013).…”

Section: Insights From the Existing Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%