The threat of outflow of individual deposits in systemically important banks of the Russian Federation: A retrospective analysis and regulatory outlook

Abstract

Subject. The article focuses on the dynamics of individual deposits in the Russian systemically important banks as a factor of the stability of available resources. Objectives. I assess the threat of individual deposits outflowing from the Russian too-big-to-fail banks within 2015–2019. I correspondingly outline recommendations for mitigating the threat in the future. Methods. The study is based on methods of logic, comparative and statistical analysis. I devised and applied our own algorithm for classifying too-big-to-fail banks by threat of individual deposit outflow and its level. Results. Systemically important banks were found to have not been exposed to the high threat of bank run within 2015–2019. Three fundamental credit institutions were constantly exposed to the threat of individual deposit outflow. One of eleven systemic banks continuously demonstrated the low threat of individual deposit outflow. The rest of the banks were migrating among the low-threat and high-threat classes. Conclusions and Relevance. The Russian systemically important banks can refer to our findings to articulate their deposit policy, set and use digital accounts of retail customers. The Bank of Russian can rely on the analysis of the threat of individual deposit outflow and other data on financial and business operations of the banks and its sustainability as part of bank oversight procedures.