The Theory of Self-Regulation of Parasitary Systems and COVID-19

Abstract

Background. The COVID-19 pandemic once again confirmed the correctness of the theory of Academician V.D. Belyakov, according to which the basis for the development of the epidemic process is a phase change in the heterogeneity of the biological properties of the interacting populations of the pathogen and humans. In accordance with the theory of self-regulation of parasitic systems, changes are associated not only with genetic variability, but also with other polydeterminant characteristics of the pathogen: when new genovariants appeared, SARS-CoV-2 became less pathogenic for humans, but more contagious. This circumstance is important not only for theoretical, but also for practical epidemiology, as it makes it possible to predict the direction of development of the epidemic situation.
 Aims — to evaluate the manifestations of the epidemic process of the new coronavirus infection COVID-19 through the prism of the theory of self-regulation of parasitic systems.
 Methods. An epidemiological retrospective analysis of the incidence of COVID-19 was carried out, including the study of absolute and intensive incidence rates per 100,000 population, the dynamics of changes in the properties of the coronavirus population, and the identification of SARS-CoV-2 genovariants for the period from 03.2020 to 04.2023. To analyze SARS-CoV-2 genovariants at various stages of the pandemic, we used sequencing data presented on the SARS-CoV-2 genome information aggregation platform Virus Genome Aggregator of Russia (VGARus) — more than 248 thousand genetic sequences.
 Results. During the pandemic, there have been seven ups and downs in the incidence of COVID-19. During the period of circulation in the human population and adaptation to a new host, a significant amount of data has accumulated on the evolutionary changes in the SARS-CoV-2 genome, taking into account the trends in the acquisition of new epidemiological properties.
 Conclusion. An analysis of the manifestations of the epidemic process of COVID-19, as a classic aerosol anthroponosis, confirmed the correctness of the theory of Academician V.D. Belyakov, according to which the basis of its development is a phase change in the heterogeneity of the biological properties of the interacting populations of the pathogen and humans, based on negative feedback in the process of self-regulation.