The Theory and Feasibility of Implementing an Economic Input/Output Analysis of the Department of Defense to Support Acquisition Decision Analysis and Cost Estimation

Abstract

Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. REPORT DATE APR 20112. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2011 to 00-00-2011 4 Preface & AcknowledgementsDuring his internship with the Graduate School of Business & Public Policy in June 2010, U.S. Air Force Academy Cadet Chase Lane surveyed the activities of the Naval Postgraduate School's Acquisition Research Program in its first seven years. The sheer volume of research products-almost 600 published papers (e.g., technical reports, journal articles, theses)-indicates the extent to which the depth and breadth of acquisition research has increased during these years. Over 300 authors contributed to these works, which means that the pool of those who have had significant intellectual engagement with acquisition issues has increased substantially. The broad range of research topics includes acquisition reform, defense industry, fielding, contracting, interoperability, organizational behavior, risk management, cost estimating, and many others. Approaches range from conceptual and exploratory studies to develop propositions about various aspects of acquisition, to applied and statistical analyses to test specific hypotheses. Methodologies include case studies, modeling, surveys, and experiments. On the whole, such findings make us both grateful for the ARP's progress to date, and hopeful that this progress in research will lead to substantive improvements in the DoD's acquisition outcomes.As pragmatists, we of course recognize that such change can only occur to the extent that the potential knowledge wrapped up in these products is put to use and tested to determine its value. We take seriously the pernicious effects of the so-called "theorypractice" gap, which would separate the acquisition scholar from the acquisition practitioner, and relegate the scholar's work to mere academic "shelfware." Some design features of our program that we believe help avoid these effects include the following: connecting researchers with practitioners on specific projects; requiring researchers to brief sponsors on project findings as a condition of funding award; "pushing" potentially high-impact research reports (e.g., via overnight shipping) to selected practitioners and policy-makers; and most notably, sponsoring this s...

Complexity and Self-Sustainment in Disaster Response Supply Chains

“…By definition, self‐sustaining supply chains require that resources consumed while transporting supplies to their destinations be provided via the supply chain itself. Researchers (Dubbs, ; Regnier & Nussbaum, ; Hathorn, ) have identified the multiplicative effects of additional transportation distance and additional stages on cost in such situations. Self‐sustaining supply chains occur commonly in military operations in austere environments, particularly in the early stages (Regnier et al., ).…”

“…The multiplier effect occurs when, due to self‐sustainment in an austere region, the total resource requirement is substantially larger than the enduser demand. As first noted by Regnier & Nussbaum (), if the fuel required by transportation vehicles must be transported by the supply chain, then a naïve cost estimate of a multistage supply chain will underestimate the true cost of supplying the enduser. Equivalently, the fuel delivered to the enduser will be substantially less than the total fuel entering the chain.…”

“…Equivalently, the fuel delivered to the enduser will be substantially less than the total fuel entering the chain. Figure (figure from Regnier & Nussbaum ()) illustrates this in an example with a three‐stage supply chain consuming and delivering a single resource—fuel. The consumption by the three stages is, respectively, 15%, 30%, and 20% of the amount delivered.…”

“…An illustration of the fuel multiplier in a self-sustaining supply chain. Adapted fromRegnier and Nussbaum (2011).…”

The fuel multiplier in multi-stage supply chains

“…Consider a very simple, hypothetical model of a three-stage logistics chain that provides fuel to a single battlefield, as shown in Table 1, and first presented elsewhere. 15 Fuel delivered is the total number of gallons of fuel that each stage delivers to the beginning of the next stage. The battlefield fuel demand at the end of Stage 3 is 1000 gallons.…”