The Technological and Economic Development of Photovoltaics

Costello, D.; Rappaport, P.

doi:10.1146/annurev.eg.05.110180.002003

Cited by 15 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 1 publication

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Wafers cut from silicon ingots comprised of multiple crystals (poly-crystalline) rather than individual crystals (mono-crystalline) have accounted for an increasing share of world production (Costello and Rappaport, 1980;Maycock, 1994Maycock, , 2002Maycock, , 2003Menanteau, 2000;JPEA, 2002;Goetzberger et al, 2003). Based on comparisons of mono-and poly-crystalline prices (Maycock, 1994(Maycock, , 1997Bruton and Woodock, 1997;Sarti and Einhaus, 2002), it is assumed that poly-crystalline modules cost 90% that of mono-crystalline modules ðPF ¼ 0:9Þ.…”

Section: Poly-crystalline Sharementioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Beyond the learning curve: factors influencing cost reductions in photovoltaics

2006

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Section: Poly-crystalline Sharementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The basic material input for producing PV wafers is solar-grade silicon feedstock, the cost of which (SC) has fallen by nearly a factor of 12 over the study period (Ghosh, 1979;Costello and Rappaport, 1980;Bruton, 2002;Swanson, 2004) (Fig. 2).…”

Section: Silicon Costmentioning

confidence: 99%

Beyond the learning curve: factors influencing cost reductions in photovoltaics

2006

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…Wafers cut from silicon ingots comprised of multiple crystals (poly-crystalline) rather than individual crystals (mono-crystalline) have accounted for an increasing share of world production (Costello and Rappaport, 1980;Maycock, 1994Maycock, , 2003 Menanteau, 2000; JPEA, 2002;Goetzberger et al, 2003). Based on comparisons of mono-and poly-crystalline prices (Maycock, 1994(Maycock, , 1997Bruton and Woodock, 1997;Sarti and Einhaus, 2002), it is assumed that poly-crystalline modules cost 90% that of mono-crystalline modules (PF=0.9).…”

Section: Yieldmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The basic material input for producing PV wafers is solar-grade silicon feedstock, the cost of which (SC) fell by nearly a factor of 12 over the study period (Ghosh, 1979;Costello and Rappaport, 1980;Bruton, 2002;Swanson, 2006) (Fig. 3).…”

Section: Silicon Costmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There was a shift away from a near-monopsony market in the early-1970s when a single customer, the U.S. space program, accounted for almost all sales. In the terrestrial market, in contrast, the U.S. government accounted for only one third of terrestrial PV purchases in 1976 (Costello and Rappaport, 1980). With the rise of the terrestrial industry, a larger set of customers emerged over the course of the decade.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

How Well Does Learning-By-Doing Explain Cost Reductions in a Carbon-Free Energy Technology?

Nemet

2006

SSRN Journal

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

SummaryThe incorporation of experience curves has enhanced the treatment of technological change in models used to evaluate the cost of climate and energy policies. However, the set of activities that experience curves are assumed to capture is much broader than the set that can be characterized by learning-by-doing, the primary connection between experience curves and economic theory. How accurately do experience curves describe observed technological change? This study examines the case of photovoltaics (PV), a potentially important climate stabilization technology with robust technology dynamics. Empirical data are assembled to populate a simple engineering-based model identifying the most important factors affecting the cost of PV over the past three decades. The results indicate that learning from experience only weakly explains change in the most important cost-reducing factors-plant size, module efficiency, and the cost of silicon. They point to other explanatory variables to include in future models. Future work might also evaluate the potential for efficiency gains from policies that rely less on 'riding down the learning curve' and more on creating incentives for firms to make investments in the types of cost-reducing activities quantified in this study. Keywords: Learning-by-doing, Experience Curves, Learning Curves, Climate Policy JEL Classification: O31, Q42, Q48, Q55 Discussions with Arnulf Grübler at the International Institute for Applied SystemsAnalysis (IIASA) were extremely helpful in the early stages of this project. I also gratefully acknowledge Brian Arthur, Severin Borenstein, Martin Green, Bronwyn Hall, Daniel Kammen, Robert Margolis, Paul Maycock, David Mowery, and Chihiro Watanabe for providing valuable comments at various stages. I thank the U.S. National Academies for financial support while I was at IIASA. This paper was presented at the EAERE-FEEM-VIU Summer School on "Computable General Equilibrium Modeling in Environmental and Resource Economics", held in Venice from June 25th to July 1st, 2006 and supported by the Marie Curie Series of Conferences "European Summer School in Resource and Environmental Economics". Address for correspondence:Gregory F. Nemet Energy and Resources Group University of California 310 Barrows Hall 3050 Berkeley CA 94720-3050 USA E-mail: gnemet@berkeley.edu Technological change and learning curvesThe rate and direction of future technological change in energy technologies are important sources of uncertainty in models that assess the costs of stabilizing the climate (Edenhofer et al., 2006). 1 Treatment of technology dynamics in integrated assessment models has become increasingly sophisticated (Grubb et al., 2002) as models have incorporated lessons from the economics of innovation and as increased processing power and improved algorithms have enabled optimization of phenomena, such as increasing returns, which in the past had made computation unwieldy (Messner, 1997). Yet the representation of technological change in large energy-economic model rema...

show abstract

Green Economy and the Future in a Post‐Pandemic World

Christie,

Cherian

2023

Integrated Green Energy Solutions Volume 1

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Technological and Economic Development of Photovoltaics

Cited by 15 publications

References 1 publication

Beyond the learning curve: factors influencing cost reductions in photovoltaics

Beyond the learning curve: factors influencing cost reductions in photovoltaics

How Well Does Learning-By-Doing Explain Cost Reductions in a Carbon-Free Energy Technology?

Green Economy and the Future in a Post‐Pandemic World

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About