The Systemic Risk Perspective: Social Perception of Uncertainty and Tipping Points

Renn, Ortwin

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-74458-8_2

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…However, the linear model of causation is not able to accommodate tipping dynamics due to the non-linear nature of the change process. Hence, complex system dynamics including non-linearity present distinct learning challenges (Plate 2010;Milkoreit 2015, Renn 2022. Related to the challenges of learning about tipping risks is the observation that systemic risk perceptions are subject to attenuation and underestimation (Schweizer, Goble, Renn 2022).…”

Section: Reorganisation/state Shiftmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…At the same time, systemic risk scholars have argued that tipping points present specific learning challenges and tend to receive less public attention than they merit (Schweizer at al. 2022, Renn 2022. Hence, understanding the state of public knowledge, limitations in understanding, and misconceptions is important to support future communication efforts related to climate tipping points.…”

Section: Perceptions Of Climate Tipping Point Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Missing the (Tipping) Point: The Role of Climate Tipping Points on Public Risk Perceptions in Norway

Nadeau,

Milkoreit,

Eriksen

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Abstract. Climate tipping points are a topic of growing interest in climate research as well as a frequent communication tool in the media to warn of dangerous climate change. Despite indications that several climate tipping points may be triggered within the Paris Agreement temperature range of 1.5 °C to well below 2 °C warming above pre-industrial levels, there is limited understanding of the level of public understanding of climate tipping points, the effects this knowledge may have on perceptions of risk related to climate change, and the corresponding behavioural and policy support implications. The emerging scholarship on learning, communication, and risk perceptions related to climate tipping points provides confounding evidence regarding the psychological and behavioural effects of information about climate tipping points. It remains unknown whether and under what conditions this knowledge increases concern, urgency perceptions and action intentions, or whether it might overwhelm audiences, inducing fatalism and withdrawal from public engagement. In this study, we assess the current state of knowledge about climate tipping points among Norwegians using a nationally representative survey. We study the comparative effects of communicating about climate tipping points and climate change more generally on risk perceptions among participants with a survey-embedded experiment. We find low levels of knowledge regarding climate tipping points (<20 %). Information about tipping points had somewhat stronger effects on participants’ risk perceptions compared to general information about climate change, moderately increasing concern. We discuss our findings, and the implications, and suggest directions for further research.

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Section: Reorganisation/state Shiftmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Perceptions Of Climate Tipping Point Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

Missing the (Tipping) Point: The Role of Climate Tipping Points on Public Risk Perceptions in Norway

Nadeau,

Milkoreit,

Eriksen

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…'the embeddedness of any risk to human health and the environment in a larger context of social, financial and economic risks and opportunities' (Renn 2021, 127), which has been shown to occur in past crisis (e.g. financial crisis; Renn et al 2019) and current public health crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic (Renn 2021(Renn , 2022. However, as Renn (2022, 15) referred: '(…) a graphic representation and simulation of evolving systemic risks and a participatory deliberative approach of inclusive risk governance are needed in order to prevent, mitigate, or control systemic risks' .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Crises social sensing: longitudinal monitoring of social perceptions of systemic risk during public health crisis

Gaspar

Domingos²,

Toscano

et al. 2023

Journal of Risk Research

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Monitoring how different people -as 'social sensors' -evaluate and respond to crisis such as pandemics, allows tailoring crisis communication to the social perceptions of the situation, at different moments. To gather such evidence, we proposed a index of social perceptions of systemic risk (SPSR), as an indicator of a situational threat compromising risks to physical health, psychological health, the economy, social relations, health system, and others. This indicator was the core of a social sensing approach applied to crisis situations, implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic through a content analysis of more than 130.000 public comments from Facebook™ users, in COVID-19 related publications. This content coding allowed creating a SPSR index monitored during a one-year descriptive longitudinal analysis. This index correlated with co-occurring events within the social system, namely epidemiological indicators across measurement cycles (e.g. new deaths; cumulative number of infection cases; Intensive Care Unit hospitalizations) and tended to reflect the epidemiological situation severity (e.g. with the highest level registered during the worst pandemic wave). However, discrepancies also occurred, with high SPSR registered in a low severity situation, i.e. low number of hospitalizations and deaths (e.g. school year beginning), or low SPSR in a high severity situation (e.g. 2nd pandemic wave during Christmas), showing other factors beyond the epidemiological situation contributing to the social perceptions. After each 'crisis period' with SPSR peaking, there was a 'restoration period' , consistently decreasing towards average levels of the previous measurement cycle. This can either indicate social resilience (recovery and resources potentiation) or risk attenuation after a high-severity period. This study serves as preliminary proof of concept of a crises social sensing approach, enabling monitoring of social system dynamics for various crisis types, such as health crisis or the climate crisis.

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Facing nonscalability: are risks still ‘risks’ when compound and catastrophic?

Fassert,

November,

Rey-Thibault

2023

Journal of Risk Research

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The Systemic Risk Perspective: Social Perception of Uncertainty and Tipping Points

Cited by 4 publications

References 25 publications

Missing the (Tipping) Point: The Role of Climate Tipping Points on Public Risk Perceptions in Norway

Missing the (Tipping) Point: The Role of Climate Tipping Points on Public Risk Perceptions in Norway

Crises social sensing: longitudinal monitoring of social perceptions of systemic risk during public health crisis

Facing nonscalability: are risks still ‘risks’ when compound and catastrophic?

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