The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM: A Review

Rummukainen, Markku; Bergström, Sten; Persson, Gunn; Rodhe, Johan; Tjernström, Michael

doi:10.1579/0044-7447-33.4.176

Cited by 54 publications

(33 citation statements)

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“…In addition to management, the drainage status is also affected by climate. Sweclim (Rummukainen et al 2004) have modelled the regional climate change for Sweden and they predict that south-west Sweden will become warmer and wetter, while the south-east will become warmer and dryer in the future. Jansson et al (in this volume) used these data to simulate forest hydrological conditions for dry and mesic soils in Sweden and found increased water stress in the south as a result of higher evaporative demand caused by changes in both meteorological conditions and changed tree growth.…”

Section: Concluding Remarks and Management Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bayesian calibration method used to elucidate carbon turnover in forest on drained organic soil

Klemedtsson¹,

Jansson

Gustafsson

et al. 2008

Biogeochemistry

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Depending on the balance between sink and source processes for C, drained organic forest soil ecosystems can be in balance or act as net sinks or sources of CO 2 to the atmosphere. In order to study the effect of groundwater level and soil temperature on C-flux, the CoupModel was calibrated (climate data, groundwater levels, soil CO 2 flux, net ecosystem fluxes of CO 2 -exchange, sensible heat flux and latent heat flux, forest production etc.) for a drained forest in Sweden. Bayesian calibration techniques were used to elucidate how different parameters and variables were interlinked in C-circulation. The calibrated model reproduced abiotic and biotic variables reasonably well except for root respiration, which was largely underestimated. Bayesian calibration reduced the uncertainties in the model and highlighted the fact that calibrations should be performed with a high number of parameters instead of specific parameter values.

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Section: Concluding Remarks and Management Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bayesian calibration method used to elucidate carbon turnover in forest on drained organic soil

Klemedtsson¹,

Jansson

Gustafsson

et al. 2008

Biogeochemistry

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show abstract

“…The main objective of the present work was to estimate long-term changes in carbon fluxes and pool sizes, taking the link between nitrogen and carbon into account, when managed Norway spruce stands were exposed to two of the IPCC climate scenarios (A2 and B2) according to SWECLIM (Rummukainen et al 2004) based on the Hadley centre GCM model. Simulations were made for well-drained soils in 4 selected regions in Sweden, representing differences in the current climate and N deposition rates, using the CoupModel, previously parameterized on a regional-based dataset (Svensson et al 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulated climate change impacts on fluxes of carbon in Norway spruce ecosystems along a climatic transect in Sweden

et al. 2007

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A simulation study based on recent regional climate scenarios for Sweden investigated possible changes in carbon (C) dynamics and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of Swedish Norway spruce forest ecosystems. Four sites, representative of well-drained soils in four regions, were included. Stand development was simulated for a 100-year rotation period using a coupled model describing abiotic and biotic processes in the soil-plant-atmosphere system. Two IPCC climate change scenarios, corresponding to a mean annual temperature increase of about 2°C (A2) or 3°C (B2) from the reference period 1961-1990 to a new period 2061-2090, were considered. Annual maximum snow depth decreased with the increase in air temperature, whereas maximum soil frost depth and mean annual soil temperature showed only small changes, especially for the sites in northern Sweden. Simulations suggested that in the warmer climate, gross primary production (GPP) increased by 24-32% in northern Sweden and by 32-43% in the south. In the north, the increase was related to the combined effect of air and soil temperature extending the growing season, whereas in the south it was mainly governed by increased N availability due to increased soil temperature. NEE increased by about 20% (A2) or 25% (B2) at all sites, more or less solely due to increased accumulation of C in the tree biomass (including harvest residues), since changes in soil C were small compared with the current climate. Both light use efficiency and water use efficiency were improved in the future climate scenarios, despite increases in atmospheric CO 2 not being considered.

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“…Rummukainen 2003), while the precipitation in northern regions is expected to increase throughout the year (Houghton et al 2001). Dankers and Christensen (2005) predicted that global warming will lead to a shorter snow season, a shift in the runoff peak, decreased sublimation and increased evapotranspiration in the sub-arctic Tana-basin in northern Fennoscandia.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For this purpose, climate change scenarios from the SWEdish regional CLImate Modelling programme SWECLIM (Rossby Centre, SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden) (Rummukainen 2003) were used to run the COUP-model (Jansson and Karlberg 2004), a physically based Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) model. This model has successfully reproduced the variability in snow depths and soil temperature, due to variations in the canopy, in the same stands as used in this study (Mellander et al 2005).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impact on snow and soil temperature in boreal Scots pine stands

2007

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Scenarios indicate that the air temperature will increase in high latitude regions in coming decades, causing the snow covered period to shorten, the growing season to lengthen and soil temperatures to change during the winter, spring and early summer. To evaluate how a warmer climate is likely to alter the snow cover and soil temperature in Scots pine stands of varying ages in northern Sweden, climate scenarios from the Swedish regional climate modelling programme SWECLIM were used to drive a Soil-VegetationAtmosphere Transfer (SVAT)-model (COUP). Using the two CO 2 emission scenarios A and B in the Hadley centres global climate model, HadleyA and HadleyB, SWECLIM predicts that the annual mean air temperature and precipitation will increase at most 4.8°C and 315 mm, respectively, within a century in the study region. The results of this analysis indicate that a warmer climate will shorten the period of persistent snow pack by 73-93 days, increase the average soil temperature by 0.9-1.5°C at 10 cm depth, advance soil warming by 15-19 days in spring and cause more soil freeze-thaw cycles by 31-38%. The results also predict that the large current variations in snow cover due to variations in tree interception and topography will be enhanced in the coming century, resulting in increased spatial variability in soil temperatures.

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The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM: A Review

Cited by 54 publications

References 0 publications

Bayesian calibration method used to elucidate carbon turnover in forest on drained organic soil

Bayesian calibration method used to elucidate carbon turnover in forest on drained organic soil

Simulated climate change impacts on fluxes of carbon in Norway spruce ecosystems along a climatic transect in Sweden

Climate change impact on snow and soil temperature in boreal Scots pine stands

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