The Survival Spectrum: The Key to Transition Engineering of Complex Systems

Abstract

This paper puts forward a simple idea describing the time, space and relationship scales of survival. The proposed survival spectrum concept represents a new way to think about sustainability that has clear implications for influencing engineering projects in all fields. The argument for the survival spectrum is developed sequentially, building on theory, definition, examples and history. The key idea is that sustainability can be effectively addressed by emergence of a new field, Transition Engineering. This is a parallel of safety engineering but with longer time scale, broader space scale, and more complex relationship scale. The past 100-year development of safety engineering is examined as a model for development of sustainability risk management and mitigation. The conclusion is that the new field, Transition Engineering, will emerge as the way our society will realize reduction in fossil fuel use and reduction in the detrimental social and environmental impacts of industrialization.

Surviving or flourishing? Integrating business resilience and sustainability

“…For the purposes of this paper, therefore, the following general definition of business sustainability is used, based on Johnston et al (2007) There is still debate about how to define and measure sustainability, how much change is needed, what is to be done and by whom. Krumdieck (2011a) acknowledges this and identifies a pragmatic solution; treat the problem as you would safety. It is almost impossible to define or deliver a completely safe system, but we do know what unsafe systems look like and how they can be improved.…”

“…It will also have its own feasibility profile for solutions, driven by internal capabilities and resources. Prioritising the intersection of the highest priority risks with those solutions which the company can best influence (Hamel and Välikangas, 2003a) allows the selection of the biggest strides away from unsustainability and irresilience (Krumdieck, 2011a). …”

“…Krumdieck suggests that we can already measure and therefore work away from unsustainability, through a process of identification, prioritisation and mitigation. Both safety and sustainability assessments vary with location and context, and require prioritisation between different kinds of risks; those which cannot be removed or mitigated require adaptation to reduce the system's vulnerability to their impacts (Krumdieck, 2011a). That adaptation is part of the management of resilience as mentioned earlier.…”

ICT4S 2029: What will be the systems supporting sustainability in 15 years

“…3) Transition Engineering: More visions for the future are brought by an emerging discipline called Transition Engineering [18] that seeks to enable change from existing unsustainable systems to more sustainable ones by adaptation and filtering of demand to declining supply.…”

Sustaining Security and Safety in ICT: A Quest for Terminology, Objectives, and Limits

“…Sustainability as a first-class quality of ICT, on an equal footing with safety and security, has first been proposed by Penzenstadler et al in [33], arguing that "instead of merely optimising current systems, software engineers must embrace transition engineering -an emerging discipline that enables change from existing unsustainable systems to more sustainable ones by adapting and filtering demand to a declining supply. " Here, transition engineering is a discipline that aims at "identifying unsustainable aspects of current systems, assessing the risks posed by those aspects, and researching and developing ways to mitigate and prevent systemic failures through adaptations" [25]. Penzenstadler et al point to a conflict between organisational goals on the one side and security, safety, and sustainability on the other, because these qualities are commonly perceived as barriers to profitability; predominantly so because companies do not pay for environmental and social impacts of their products.…”