The Supply of Calories, Proteins, and Fats in Low-Income Countries: A Four-Decade Retrospective Study

Abstract

Over the past decades, both the quantity and quality of food supply for millions of people have improved substantially in the course of economic growth across the developing world. However, the number of undernourished people has resumed growth in the 2010s amid food supply disruptions, economic slowdowns, and protectionist restrictions to agricultural trade. Having been common to most nations, these challenges to the food security status of the population still vary depending on the level of economic development and national income of individual countries. In order to explore the long-run determinants of food supply transformations, this study employs five-stage multiple regression analysis to identify the strengths and directions of effects of agricultural production parameters, income level, price indices, food trade, and currency exchange on supply of calories, proteins, and fats across 11 groups of agricultural products in 1980–2018. To address the diversity of effects across developing nations, the study includes 99 countries of Asia, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa categorized as low-income, lower-middle-income, and upper-middle-income economies. It is found that in low-income countries, food supply parameters are more strongly affected by production factors compared to economic and trade variables. The effect of economic factors on the food supply of higher-value food products, such as meat and dairy products, fruit, and vegetables, increases with the rise in the level of income, but it stays marginal for staples in all three groups of countries. The influence of trade factors on food supply is stronger compared to production and economic parameters in import-dependent economies irrelevant of the gross national income per capita. The approach presented in this paper contributes to the research on how food supply patterns and their determinants evolve in the course of economic transformations in low-income countries.

Effects of Corruption Control on the Number of Undernourished People in Developing Countries

“…Some regions of Asia still have a high proportion of undernourished children due to the uneven rate of decline in the incidence of various kinds of child malnutrition across income classes [ 92 ]. Undernourishment is responsible for 45% of global deaths among children under five years in developing countries, with Asia accounting for more than half of stunted children [ 37 ]. According to Ntambara and Chu [ 93 ], the COVID-19 pandemic impacted many countries, particularly in Asia, where child malnutrition remains a major issue.…”

“…We picked the number of undernourished people (NUP) variable as the primary unit of measurement in our study, Developing countries have experienced a drastic increase in cereal production, from 1.2 to 2.52 tons per ha, over the past 40 years [ 6 ]. They have also designed food security policies and interventions to enhance nutrition quality and meet minimum dietary energy needs [ 37 ].…”

“…Year-round access to economically adequate food remains a challenge in most low-income communities. This leaves the non-production aspects of developing country food security policies unfinished [ 37 ]. This is critical, since developing countries account for 98% of the world’s undernourished people and have an average of 16% prevalence of malnutrition of their total population [ 40 ].…”

“…Increases in GDP influence the calories and nutrients available per capita [ 37 ], since this macroeconomic indicator defines people’s standard of living, and countries use their GDPs to purchase food, especially during times of scarcity [ 66 ]. For example, food-importing countries that are price-takers on the international market can achieve food security at reduced costs by varying the volume of imports while maintaining a modest buffer stock [ 11 ].…”

“…Trade has a universal influence on improving nutrition security by ensuring a sufficient supply of macro- and micronutrients across all countries [ 69 ]. Trade also has a more significant impact on food availability than production and other economic determinants in import-dependent countries [ 37 ]. Trade policy changes can help improve food security [ 66 ].…”