The supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel

Abdi, Abdulhakim M.; Seaquist, Jonathan; Tenenbaum, David E.; Eklundh, Lars; Ardö, Jonas

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/9/094003

Cited by 61 publications

(74 citation statements)

References 51 publications

(45 reference statements)

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“…Finally, we defined the demand of NPP as compounds that are necessary for human livelihood in the Sahel region following the NPP demand approach of Abdi et al (2014). However, our approach differs from Abdi et al (2014) by distinguishing between the demand for cereal and pasture products.…”

Section: Npp Demandmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The population largely relies on rain-fed farming practices including subsistence agriculture, cash crops, pastoralism, and agro-pastoralism. The population has a high reliance on their own land, and 95 % of food produced is for domestic consumption (Abdi et al, 2014;. The vulnerability of the population to variations in agricultural supply due to frequent drought undermines wealth accumulation, which would otherwise provide a buffer in drought years (Barbier et al, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…NPP estimates from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) suggest that the Sahel region experienced a near-constant rate of crop productivity between 2000 and 2010, while the population grew at a rate of 3.1 % over the same period (Abdi et al, 2014). Abdi et al (2014) also showed that 19 % of the NPP supply in the Sahel was able to satisfy demand for the year 2000, but this increased to 41 % in 2010 due to a 31 % increase in the population.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Abdi et al (2014) also showed that 19 % of the NPP supply in the Sahel was able to satisfy demand for the year 2000, but this increased to 41 % in 2010 due to a 31 % increase in the population. Since the NPP demand increased at an annual rate of 2.2 % over the period while the supply was nearly constant, the near doubling in NPP demand implies in relative terms that there was less NPP supply to service the increased population.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This raises the question of whether demand could consistently outstrip supply in the future and underscores the importance of developing tools for analysing potential future supply and demand that could be of use for policy makers. Indeed, the balance between supply and demand (annual biomass required for human consumption) serves as a key metric for quantifying basic resource shortfalls over broad regions (Abdi et al, 2014;.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel

et al. 2017

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Abstract. In the 21st century, climate change in combination with increasing demand, mainly from population growth, will exert greater pressure on the ecosystems of the Sahel to supply food and feed resources. The balance between supply and demand, defined as the annual biomass required for human consumption, serves as a key metric for quantifying basic resource shortfalls over broad regions.Here we apply an exploratory modelling framework to analyse the variations in the timing and geography of different NPP (net primary production) supply-demand scenarios, with distinct assumptions determining supply and demand, for the 21st century Sahel. We achieve this by coupling a simple NPP supply model forced with projections from four representative concentration pathways with a global, reduced-complexity demand model driven by socio-economic data and assumptions derived from five shared socio-economic pathways.For the scenario that deviates least from current socio-economic and climate trends, we find that per capita NPP begins to outstrip supply in the 2040s, while by 2050 half the countries in the Sahel experience NPP shortfalls. We also find that despite variations in the timing of the onset of NPP shortfalls, demand cannot consistently be met across the majority of scenarios. Moreover, large between-country variations are shown across the scenarios, in which by the year 2050 some countries consistently experience shortage or surplus, while others shift from surplus to shortage. At the local level (i.e. grid cell), hotspots of total NPP shortfall consistently occur in the same locations across all scenarios but vary in size and magnitude. These hotspots are linked to population density and high demand. For all scenarios, total simulated NPP supply doubles by 2050 but is outpaced by increasing demand due to a combination of population growth and the adoption of diets rich in animal products. Finally, variations in the timing of the onset and end of supply shortfalls stem from the assumptions that underpin the shared socio-economic pathways rather than the representative concentration pathways.Our results suggest that the UN sustainable development goals for eradicating hunger are at high risk for failure. This emphasizes the importance of policy interventions such as the implementation of sustainable and healthy diets, family planning, reducing yield gaps, and encouraging the transfer of resources to impoverished areas via trade relations.

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Section: Npp Demandmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel

et al. 2017

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Testing the water: detecting artificial water points using freely available satellite data and open source software

Owen

Duncan

Pettorelli

2015

Remote Sens Ecol Conserv

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Deserts are among the most poorly understood biomes in the world, currently experiencing among the highest rates of environmental change and biodiversity loss. A major controlling factor on the ecology and distribution of vegetation and animal populations in these harsh arid systems is the abundance and distribution of water sources. Accordingly, extraction and redistribution of water at artificial water points across desert landscapes can constitute a real threat to local ecosystem dynamics. A major challenge in tackling this potential threat is identifying changes in the distribution of artificial water points through space and time, due to the difficulties of collecting such information at relevant spatial and temporal scales. We here investigate the potential for freely available satellite imagery to provide reliable information about the distribution of artificial water points using the Ouadi Rime-Ouadi Achim Faunal Reserve (OROAFR), Chad, as a case study. We reveal that Landsat 8 data combined with texture analysis can accurately detect these artificial landmarks across the heterogeneous environment of OROAFR; 75.68% of artificial water points within the site were successfully identified and false positive detection rate was minimal at 7.69%. The methodological framework developed for this work, based on the treatment of freely available satellite data using open source software, adds to other works attempting to help monitor threats to biodiversity in desert ecosystems, enabling up-to-date information on the level of anthropogenic activities in these habitats to be easily and regularly collected.

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