The Subways Seeded the Massive Coronavirus Epidemic in New York City

Abstract

The opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not represent the views of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Eisner Health, the National Bureau of Economic Research, or any other individual or organization. The author has received no direct or indirect remuneration for this article, and has no conflicts of interest to declare. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peerreviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.

Data from the COVID-19 epidemic in Florida suggest that younger cohorts have been transmitting their infections to less socially mobile older adults

“…Causal inferences relating trends in COVID-19 incidence to specific regulatory actions must be approached with care (Harris 2020b(Harris , 2020c. Still, it is noteworthy 1 For each calendar week, we computed the geometric mean as exp 1 7 P 7 t ¼ 1 log y t , where {y t : t = 1,…, 7} are the incidence rates for each of the 7 days of that week.…”

Understanding Spatial Variation in COVID-19 across the United States

“…Thus, there is not much variation in days since stay-at-home-orders for that small and selected sample of counties. 11…”

“…use rainfall shocks to identify the effect of staying at home, finding that social distancing has a persistent negative effect on cases and deaths across US counties. Lin and Meissner (2020) find that stay-at-home orders reduced mobility but not COVID-19 cases, looking at counties on either side of state borders 11. For instance, when the number of days since reaching 05 deaths per 100 000 population is 80, there are only 959 counties in the sample, only 90 of which have no stay-at-home orders in place.…”

Hay que defender la ciudad: de la distopía del confinamiento a la Ciudad Abierta

“…Para avalar esta idea utiliza el concepto de densidad de exposición vinculándolo a la dependencia de los núcleos urbanos más densos respecto del transporte colectivo. El tema es particularmente candente después de que simulaciones epidemiológicas hayan concluido que el metro de Nueva York (Figura 14) fue durante su funcionamiento el principal vector de propagación de la epidemia (Harris, 2020). El propio gobernador Andrew Cuomo ha llegado a calificar el nivel de densidad de NYC como destructivo (Badger, 2020 Como ha recordado Richard Florida (2020b), es necesario considerar el tipo de densidad.…”