The study of potential evapotranspiration in future periods due to climate change in west of Iran

Rajabi, Ahmad; Babakhani, Zahra

doi:10.1108/ijccsm-01-2017-0008

Cited by 16 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 27 publications

(27 reference statements)

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“…The prediction of the ET 0 for the next years demonstrated that the ET 0 values will go up from 2011 to 2113, approximately, for all stations under all three scenarios. This result is in line with the research by Rajabi and Babakhani [32] in Iran and Tiegang et al [33] in China. In conclusion, the highest increase of the ET 0 in the future over Iran will happen from 2080 to 2113 under the A1B scenario, while the lowest will be observed from 2046 to 2079 under the B1 scenario.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

“…Consequently, the most critical condition from the aspect of the ET 0 is predicted for the A1B scenario. Rajabi and Babakhani [32] reported the same result. By studying the climate change effect on the ET 0 changes in the west of Iran, they stated that the highest ET 0 rise will happen in the A1B scenario.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 59%

“…Abdolhosseini et al [31] evaluated the effect of climate change on potential ET (ET 0 ) and illustrated that the ET 0 values in future periods will decline significantly compared to the past period. On the contrary, the results of Rajabi and Babakhani [32] indicated that in all five stations, located in the west of Iran, the ET 0 values will increase from 2011 to 2099. Tiegang et al [33] by investigating the future ET 0 trend in the southwest of China declared that there was a spatially increasing trend between 1960 and 2010 from northeast to southeast.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 85%

“…The assumption in the A2 scenario depends on the existence of a separate world. Various cultural identities in different regions of the world increase differences in the world and reduce international cooperation [32]. So the weather parameters were predicted for three 34-year periods, 2011-2045, 2046-2079, and 2080-2113, under different scenarios.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the second step, the amount of ET 0 was calculated by the Hargreaves-Samani (HS) method in the Ref-ET software. Due to the fact that high accuracy and less meteorological data are needed in the application of the HS, previous studies have recommended this method in Iran [32,37,38]. For instance, Raziei and Pereira [39] reported that the HS method is an appropriate alternative in the estimation of ET 0 for all climatic regions of Iran.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Investigation into the Effects of Climate Change on Reference Evapotranspiration Using the HadCM3 and LARS-WG

Bayatvarkeshi

Zhang

Fasihi

et al. 2020

Water

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This study evaluates the effect of climate change on reference evapotranspiration (ET0), which is one of the most important variables in water resources management and irrigation scheduling. For this purpose, daily weather data of 30 Iranian weather stations from 1981 and 2010 were used. The HadCM3 statistical model was applied to report the output subscale of LARS-WG and to predict the weather information by A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios in three periods: 2011–2045, 2046–2079, and 2080–2113. The ET0 values were estimated by the Ref-ET software. The results indicated that the ET0 will rise from 2011 to 2113 approximately in all stations under three scenarios. The ET0 changes percentages in the A1B scenario during three periods from 2011 to 2113 were found to be 0.98%, 5.18%, and 12.17% compared to base period, respectively, while for the B1 scenario, they were calculated as 0.67%, 4.07%, and 6.61% and for the A2 scenario, they were observed as 0.59%, 5.35%, and 9.38%, respectively. Thus, the highest increase of the ET0 will happen from 2080 to 2113 under the A1B scenario; however, the lowest will occur between 2046 and 2079 under the B1 scenario. Furthermore, the assessment of uncertainty in the ET0 calculated by the different scenarios showed that the ET0 predicted under the A2 scenario was more reliable than the others. The spatial distribution of the ET0 showed that the highest ET0 amount in all scenarios belonged to the southeast and the west of the studied area. The most noticeable point of the results was that the ET0 differs from one scenario to another and from a period to another.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 59%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 85%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Investigation into the Effects of Climate Change on Reference Evapotranspiration Using the HadCM3 and LARS-WG

Bayatvarkeshi

Zhang

Fasihi

et al. 2020

Water

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Trend analysis of evapotranspiration over Iran based on NEX‐GDDP high‐resolution dataset

Ghalami

Saghafian

Raziei

2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Estimation of evapotranspiration, representing a highly sensitive variable to global warming, is often required in water resources and agricultural studies. This study explores the possible effects of climate change on evapotranspiration (ET o) across Iran. The ET o was computed using the Penman-Monteith Temperature (PMT) method that requires only minimum and maximum temperature (T min and T max), provided by the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections dataset (NEX-GDDP) with a 0.25 × 0.25 spatial resolution. Accuracy of the NEX-GDDP T min and T max were evaluated against ground truth observations at 41 synoptic weather stations distributed across the country using a set of statistical measures, including the coefficient of determination (R 2) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE). Similarly, the PMT estimated evapotranspiration based on the NEX-GDDP T min and T max (ET o-GDDP) were statistically evaluated against the ET o computed with observed variables at selected stations (ET o-obs). Then, at each grid cell, the 45-years ET o-GDDP time series was partitioned into three 15-years subperiods such that the differences between three subperiods were computed and inter-compared. Furthermore, annual, seasonal, and monthly ET o time series trends of each cell were evaluated using the Mann-Kendall trend test (MK) while the corresponding change rates were estimated using Theil-Sen's slope estimator (TSSE). The results demonstrated a good agreement between ET o-GDDP and ET o-obs with R 2 greater than 0.8 and NSE greater than 0.7 in 90.2% and 65.8% of the stations, respectively. The maps of differences between the three subperiods showed negligible changes in ET o between 1975-1990 and 1950-1975 subperiods. The spatial patterns of annual and seasonal MK statistics showed a significant increasing trend in most parts of Iran. On seasonal scale, the highest and lowest ET o changes were observed in spring (0.00035-0.0045) and in autumn (0.0005-0.0015), respectively.

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Impacts of climate and land coverage changes on potential evapotranspiration and its sensitivity on drought phenomena over South Asia

Ali,

Basit,

Umair

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Understanding the spatiotemporal historical drought pattern and their sensitivity effect on potential evapotranspiration (PET) and vegetation coverage changes is essential for efficient drought mitigation policies under climate change. In this study, we used the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at multiple timescales, such as SPEI‐01, SPEI‐03, SPEI‐06, SPEI‐09 and SPEI‐12; we explored their regional‐scale dry and wet annual changes across seven sub‐regions of South Asia from 1902 to 2018. Results suggest that from 1981 to 2018, the extreme drought of SPEI has increased in South Asia, which mostly affects the summer and winter growing seasons, that is, SPEI‐06 to SPEI‐12 across seven sub‐regions of South Asia. The frequency of drought events during dry and wet annual changes of SPEI had an extremely dry year starting from 1998 to 2018, which mostly affected the South Asia region. Data from the past 18 years showed that the land changing detection has increased in the forests, cultivated land, arid land, savanna and farmland; by contrast, there has been significantly reduced permanent ice and snow, mixed forests, open shrub, grasslands, permanent wetlands, water bodies and evergreen broadleaf forests. Seasonal SPEI presented diverse characteristics such as showing a dry trend in Afghanistan, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka during autumn and winter. Afghanistan and Bhutan are wet during the summer compared with other sub‐regions of South Asia, with drought frequency occurring at 45.3% and 44.4%. Sri Lanka, Pakistan and India are the driest regions in South Asia due to their high drought frequency, duration and intensity. The correlation between PET and crop water stress index (CWSI), PET and regional ETp reduction (Er) indicated a considerably negative correlation, while a significantly positive correlation was found between CWSI and Er, NDVI and Er. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of climate and vegetation coverage changes on PET, ET and SPEI, and can help in formulating long‐term adaptive strategies to reduce the cumulative impacts of droughts.

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The study of potential evapotranspiration in future periods due to climate change in west of Iran

Cited by 16 publications

References 27 publications

Investigation into the Effects of Climate Change on Reference Evapotranspiration Using the HadCM3 and LARS-WG

Investigation into the Effects of Climate Change on Reference Evapotranspiration Using the HadCM3 and LARS-WG

Trend analysis of evapotranspiration over Iran based on NEX‐GDDP high‐resolution dataset

Impacts of climate and land coverage changes on potential evapotranspiration and its sensitivity on drought phenomena over South Asia

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