The strategy of low-carbon development of Russia and the role of forests in its implementation

Abstract

The article analyzes the role of increasing greenhouse gas absorption in the Land Use, Land Use Change, Forestry (LULUCF) sector to achieve carbon neutrality in Russia. Recommendations are given for improving the text of the “Strategy for the socioeconomic development of the Russian Federation with low greenhouse gas emissions until 2050” (LCDS). The interest of the business community in investing in climate projects in LULUCF, especially in forest climate projects, is shown. The latest changes in legal regulation are presented, opening up the possibility of increasing the return on investment in forest climate projects, and a detailed analysis of the content of the operational plan for the implementation of the LCDS in the LULUCF sector (LCDS OP) is carried out. A prospective assessment of the balance of greenhouse gases in Russian forests in 2050 is given, assuming a constant volume of logging and the area of burned areas. The ratio of public and private investment in the implementation of activities and climate projects in LULUCF proposed in the LCDS OP was calculated (4: 1), which indicates an unjustified bias in the direction of public financing. The authors justify the need for significant refinement of the LCDS OP and continuation of work to find an optimal scenario for decarbonization of the Russian Federation using the LULUCF potential.