The strategic strength of weak signal analysis

Mendonça, Sandro; Cardoso, Gustavo; Caraça, João

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2011.10.004

Cited by 66 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…L'inégale représentation de ces diffé-rentes formes d'émergence peut être expliquée par la difficulté à inclure des contributeurs « marginaux » par rapport à notre thème de travail, et par une sélection basée sur la délibération collective, qui tend parfois à lisser les positions minoritaires et à évacuer les propositions plus surprenantes (Amanatidou et al, 2012 ;Mendonça et al, 2012). Cependant, ces nombreuses tendances insuffisamment prises en compte nous semblent aussi symptomatiques de l'état actuel des politiques publiques de biodiversité, qui conservent des lacunes sur des sujets pourtant connus.…”

Section: Discussion Et Perspectivesunclassified

“…La formulation des questions est donc souvent assez inclusive pour que chacun, au-delà du commanditaire de l'expertise, se sente concerné par les responsabilités et les leviers qui lui sont propres. L'association des acteurs à la conduite de l'exercice, que ce soit dans le groupe central ou lors de la consultation à distance, favorise l'identification de questions pertinentes et contribue à l'appropriation des résul-tats (Sutherland et al, 2011b ;Mendonça et al, 2012), sans que cela soit une condition suffisante.…”

Section: Discussion Et Perspectivesunclassified

“…En effet, les nouveaux sujets doivent être pris au sérieux suffisamment en amont afin que les travaux nécessaires à leur prise en charge soient conduits à temps (Mendonça et al, 2012). Ce besoin est d'autant plus crucial que les travaux prospectifs en écologie sont de plus en plus nombreux, en lien avec une volonté croissante de comprendre, d'anticiper, voire de résoudre, les conséquences des changements planétaires sur les éco-systèmes (Leadley et al, 2010).…”

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Quelles questions émergentes pour les politiques publiques de biodiversité en France métropolitaine ? Résultats et perspectives

et al. 2015

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Section: Discussion Et Perspectivesunclassified

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Quelles questions émergentes pour les politiques publiques de biodiversité en France métropolitaine ? Résultats et perspectives

et al. 2015

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“…The potential of wild cards and especially weak signals in identifying possible changes in the future that could jeopardise or promote a system's existence have been eagerly discussed and scrutinised [2][3][4][5][6][7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Weak signals and wild cards in water and sanitation services – exploring an approach for water utilities

Takala

Heino

2017

Eur J Futures Res

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Weak signals and wild cards are used to scan the environment and make systems more sensitive to emerging changes. In this paper, the applicability of weak signals and wild cards is experimented in a case of a highly reliable and conservative sector, water and sanitation services. The aim is to explore an approach suitable for water utilities. The paper discusses different theoretical and methodological approaches to weak signals and wild cards, and reflects these in relation to the chosen approach. It is argued that the process of weak signals and wild cards can serve as a communication and reflection exercise for an organisation like a water utility. Furthermore, incorporating weak signals and wild cards can be an essential part in futures thinking, challenge prevailing mental models, and make systems more open to sense and learn from their environment. It is recommended for water utilities to apply a loose approach on weak signals and wild cards and embed it as a part of their organisational culture. However, it should be remembered that the approach should always be chosen to match the overall objectives and context.

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“…Alternative ways of organizing ourselves tend to be unconceivable or rarely considered, however, one potential "weak signal" that could indicate an emerging issue [7,8] to challenge the violence within the prevailing paradigm and lead to more humane organizations is that of acephalous functioning [9,10]. Acephalous organization is, however, not a panacea; people must still negotiate difference and individuals can still take advantage and abuse others.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Three Scales of Acephalous Organization

MacGill

2016

Systems

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Dominance-based hierarchies have been taken for granted as the way we structure our organizations, but they are a part of a paradigm that has put our whole existence in peril. There is an urgent need to explore alternative paradigms that take us away from dystopic futures towards preferred, life enhancing paradigms based on wellbeing. One of the alternative ways of organizing ourselves that avoids much of the structural violence of existing organizations is the acephalous group (operating without any structured, ongoing leadership). Decision making becomes distributed, transitory and self-selecting. Such groups are not always appropriate and have their strengths and weaknesses, but they can be a more effective, humane way of organizing ourselves and can open windows to new ways of being. Acephalous groups operate at many different scales and adapt their structure accordingly. For this reason, a comparison of small, medium and large-scale acephalous groups reveals some of the dynamics involved in acephalous functioning and provides a useful overview of these emergent forms of organization and foreshadows the role they may play in future.

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The strategic strength of weak signal analysis

Cited by 66 publications

References 11 publications

Quelles questions émergentes pour les politiques publiques de biodiversité en France métropolitaine ? Résultats et perspectives

Quelles questions émergentes pour les politiques publiques de biodiversité en France métropolitaine ? Résultats et perspectives

Weak signals and wild cards in water and sanitation services – exploring an approach for water utilities

Three Scales of Acephalous Organization

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