The Statistical Properties of Freeze Date Variables and the Length of the Growing Season

Waylen, Peter R.; LeBoutillier, David W.

doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1989)002<1314:tspofd>2.0.co;2

Cited by 10 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…The latter type of event is relatively rare as far south as the agricultural areas of south Florida. When freezing conditions do occur in those areas, they are usually of the ''radiation'' variety, and minimum temperatures rarely fall much below the freezing mark for any significant duration of time (Waylen 1988;Waylen and LeBoutillier 1989). Often, advective freezes occur over more northern areas of the peninsula on nights preceding a radiation freeze over the agricultural areas of south Florida.…”

Section: Background and Methods A Background On Examined Freeze Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Has the Conversion of Natural Wetlands to Agricultural Land Increased the Incidence and Severity of Damaging Freezes in South Florida?

Marshall¹,

Pielke²,

Steyaert³

2004

Mon. Wea. Rev.

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On several occasions, winter freezes have wrought severe destruction on Florida agriculture. A series of devastating freezes around the turn of the twentieth century, and again during the 1980s, were related to anomalies in the large-scale flow of the ocean-atmosphere system. During the twentieth century, substantial areas of wetlands in south Florida were drained and converted to agricultural land for winter fresh vegetable and sugarcane production. During this time, much of the citrus industry also was relocated to those areas to escape the risk of freeze farther to the north. The purpose of this paper is to present a modeling study designed to investigate whether the conversion of the wetlands to agriculture itself could have resulted in or exacerbated the severity of recent freezes in those agricultural areas of south Florida.For three recent freeze events, a pair of simulations was undertaken with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System. One member of each pair employed land surface properties that represent pre-1900s (near natural) land cover, whereas the other member of each pair employed data that represent near-current land-use patterns as derived from analysis of Landsat data valid for 1992/93. These two different land cover datasets capture well the conversion of wetlands to agriculture in south Florida during the twentieth century. Use of current land surface properties resulted in colder simulated minimum temperatures and temperatures that remained below freezing for a longer period at locations of key agricultural production centers in south Florida that were once natural wetlands. Examination of time series of the surface energy budget from one of the cases reveals that when natural land cover is used, a persistent moisture flux from the underlying wetlands during the nighttime hours served to prevent the development of below-freezing temperatures at those same locations. When the model results were subjected to an important sensitivity factor, the depth of standing water in the wetlands, the outcome remained consistent. These results provide another example of the potential for humans to perturb the climate system in ways that can have severe socioeconomic consequences by altering the land surface alone.

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Section: Background and Methods A Background On Examined Freeze Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Has the Conversion of Natural Wetlands to Agricultural Land Increased the Incidence and Severity of Damaging Freezes in South Florida?

Marshall¹,

Pielke²,

Steyaert³

2004

Mon. Wea. Rev.

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show abstract

“…This method combines existing approaches in the modelling of extremes, specifically the annual maximum series (AMS) and the partial duration series (PDS), also known as the peaks-overthreshold approach (POT). The AMS and PDS approaches have been used extensively in different studies looking at hydrological or climatological events above high/low thresholds (Waylen 1988, Waylen and LeBoutillier 1989, Waylen et al 2012. The point process approach has advantages over both traditional approaches of modelling extremes, as it can model the frequency and magnitude of events in a single point process rather than separately as in the POT, and it also includes all of the available extreme data above a specific threshold, and thus leads to more reliable results (Embrechts et al 1997, Coles et al 2001, Tomassini and Jacob 2009, Keellings and Waylen 2015.…”

Section: Extreme Value Analysis Point Process Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme floods and their relationship with tropical cyclones in Puerto Rico

Ayala

Keellings

Waylen

et al. 2017

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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An extreme value analysis (EVA) point process approach has been implemented to examine the flood characteristics of Puerto Rico when tropical cyclones (TCs) are present in the discharge series and when they are removed from it. Mean daily discharge values that exceeded the 99th percentile thresholds were used in both the TC and non-TC data series. In nine of the 12 stations the maximum discharge was associated with a TC, with hurricanes Hortense (1996), Georges (1998) and Eloise (1975) responsible for most of the maximum peaks at each site. Percentage changes in the generalized extreme value parameters, which include location (central tendency), scale (variance) and shape (skewness), between the TC and non-TC data exhibited a decrease in the majority of stations. Stations in the eastern interior and central region of the island showed the largest decrease in all parameters, in flood occurrences and in return periods when TCs were removed from the series. ARTICLE HISTORY

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“…This approach unifies existing approaches to the modeling of extremes, namely the peak over threshold (POT) and block maxima approaches which have been applied extensively in hydrological and climatological studies of events above high or low thresholds (Rice 1945;Leadbetter et al 1983;Rodriguez-Iturbe and Bras 1985;Waylen 1988;Waylen and LeBoutillier 1989;Goto-Maeda et al 2008;Waylen et al 2012). The point process is formulated in terms of the limiting Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution parameters (µ, σ, ξ) and as a result, extremal properties are characterized by only these three parameters (Coles 2001).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating teleconnection drivers of bivariate heat waves in Florida using extreme value analysis

Keellings

Waylen

2014

Clim Dyn

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The Statistical Properties of Freeze Date Variables and the Length of the Growing Season

Cited by 10 publications

References 0 publications

Has the Conversion of Natural Wetlands to Agricultural Land Increased the Incidence and Severity of Damaging Freezes in South Florida?

Has the Conversion of Natural Wetlands to Agricultural Land Increased the Incidence and Severity of Damaging Freezes in South Florida?

Extreme floods and their relationship with tropical cyclones in Puerto Rico

Investigating teleconnection drivers of bivariate heat waves in Florida using extreme value analysis

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