The stability of U.S. economic policy: Does it really matter for oil price?

Qin, Meng; Su, Chi‐Wei; Lü, Hao; Tao, Ran

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2020.117315

Cited by 56 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 71 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The short-run parameter ω 0 is negative at 10% quantile and positive at 90% quantile. Our results are partly consistent with Qin et al (2020a). They demonstrate that the effects of USEPU on WTI prices are both negative and positive.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 89%

New insights into price drivers of crude oil futures markets: Evidence from quantile ARDL approach

Shao¹,

Shao²,

Yang³

2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper investigates the cointegration between possible determinants of crude oil futures prices during the COVID-19 pandemic period. We perform comparative analysis of WTI and newlylaunched Shanghai crude oil futures (SC) via the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag (QARDL) model. The empirical results confirm that economic policy uncertainty, stock markets, interest rates and coronavirus panic are important drivers of WTI futures prices. Our findings also suggest that the US and China's stock markets play vital roles in movements of SC futures prices. Meanwhile, CSI300 stock index has a significant positive short-run impact on SC futures prices while S&P500 prices possess a positive nexus with SC futures prices both in long-run and short-run. Overall, these empirical evidences provide practical implications for investors and policymakers.

show abstract

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 89%

New insights into price drivers of crude oil futures markets: Evidence from quantile ARDL approach

Shao¹,

Shao²,

Yang³

2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Salcedo et al (2019) announce that extreme weather events, such as El Niño phenomenon, influence society through different ways particularly under the condition of global warming. In addition, oil price also has significant impacts on the macroeconomic field (Sodeyfi & Katircioglu, 2016;Shaeri & Katircio glu, 2018;Su et al, 2019b;Qin et al, 2020), but the economic growth is based on the increased consumption of energy (Batrancea et al, 2019), which may cause to the changes in the global environment and climate.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Also, the time-varying interrelationship between El Niño phenomenon and oil price by considering the time and frequency domains is hardly identified in the existing studies. Thus, this paper employs the wavelet analysis method to analyze the noisy and complicated time series (Roueff & Sachs, 2011;Su et al, 2019a;Qin et al, 2020). Then, we can obtain the global and local time-frequency relationship between El Niño phenomenon and oil price, as well as the leading and lagging effects of these two variables.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The inevitable role of El Niño: a fresh insight into the oil market

Qin

Qiu

Tao

et al. 2020

Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper explores the time-varying interaction between El Niño phenomenon and the oil market by applying the wavelet analysis. Few studies have explored the time-varying interrelationship between El Niño phenomenon and oil price (also the prices of petroleum products) by considering the time and frequency domains, and this paper will fill the above gaps. The empirical results reveal that El Niño index (NINO) which reflects the strength of El Niño phenomenon has a negative influence on oil price (OP) in the long run, but this view does not hold in the short and medium terms. These results are not consistent with the intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM), which indicates that there is a positive influence from NINO to OP. In turn, OP positively affects NINO in the medium term. Through comparing the five petroleum products, we can conclude that heating oil price (HOP) is the most relevant to NINO, while gasoline price (GOP) and diesel fuel price (DOP) have relatively weak relationships with it. Understanding the interactions between El Niño phenomenon and the oil market can provide insights for the investors, oil enterprises and related authorities.

show abstract

“…Second, EPU brings greater operational risk to trading markets, including but not limited to green technology markets and carbon trading markets (Wang et al 2022). In addition, EPU can also affect energy markets (Qin et al 2020, Zhu et al 2021 and carbon trading markets (Adekoya et al 2021, by exacerbating market volatility and increasing the risk. Volatility in such markets may in turn increase EPU, creating a vicious cycle (Su et al 2021).…”

Section: Environmental Impact Of Epumentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of Post-COVID-19 economic and environmental policy and recovery based on recurrent neural network and long short-term memory network

Xiong²,

Chen³

et al. 2022

Environ. Res. Commun.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

COVID-19 has brought significant impacts on the global economy and environment. The Global Economic-and-environmental Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) index is a critical indicator to measure the uncertainty of global economic policies. Its prediction provides evidence for the good prospect of global economic and environmental policy and recovery. This is the first study using the monthly data of GEPU from January 1997 to January 2022 to predict the GEPU index after the COVID-19 pandemic. Both Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models have been adopted to predict the GEPU. In general, the RNN outperforms the LSTM networks, and most results suggest that the GEPU index will remain stable or decline in the coming year. A few results point to the possibility of a short-term increase in GEPU, but still far from its two peaks during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. This forecast confirms that the impact of the epidemic on global economic and environmental policy will continue to wane. Lower economic and environmental policy uncertainty facilitates global economic and environmental recovery. Economic recovery brings more opportunities and a stable macroeconomic environment, which is a positive sign for both investors and businesses. Meanwhile, for the ecological environment, the declining GEPU index marks a gradual reduction in the direct impact of policy uncertainty on sustainable development, but the indirect environmental impact of uncertainty may remain in the long run. Our prediction also provides a reference for subsequent policy formulation and related research.

show abstract

The stability of U.S. economic policy: Does it really matter for oil price?

Cited by 56 publications

References 71 publications

New insights into price drivers of crude oil futures markets: Evidence from quantile ARDL approach

New insights into price drivers of crude oil futures markets: Evidence from quantile ARDL approach

The inevitable role of El Niño: a fresh insight into the oil market

Prediction of Post-COVID-19 economic and environmental policy and recovery based on recurrent neural network and long short-term memory network

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About