The stability of climatological tornado data

Schaefer, Joseph T.; Livingston, Richard; Ostby, Frederick P.; Leftwich, Preston W.

doi:10.1029/gm079p0459

Cited by 9 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Smaller 'tornado alleys' were also found in eastern Iowa, south-central Indiana, western Pennsylvania, and central Arkansas. Similarly, Schaefer et al (1993) found the typical Great Plains concentrations, but other notable clusters in Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia.…”

Section: Establishing the Tornado Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While the overall number of tornado occurrences has increased during the past 100 yr, the number of tornadoes rated as F2 or greater (on the Fujita-Pearson intensity scale) has not (Grazulis 2001). Schaefer et al (1993) acknowledged the influence of geographic factors on designating certain areas within the US as prone to strong and violent tornadoes (F2 and greater), such as central Oklahoma, and they argued that these risk areas were more reflective of population density, not necessarily tornado occurrences of F2 or greater. However, the most severe tornadoes (F4 or F5) caused a disproportionate number of fatalities (53% between 1985 and 1993) despite their rarity (less than 1% of all tornadoes recorded; Lillibridge 1997).…”

Section: Establishing the Tornado Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There is an inherent population bias that influences how the intensity of a tornado is classified, a bias that is rarely acknowledged (Schaefer et al 1993, Monmonier 1997, Golden 1999. Generally, less intense tornado events may result in greater damage in more densely populated areas, causing the event itself to be classified as a stronger storm than what the actual wind speeds would justify.…”

Section: Locational Vulnerabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Tornado hazards in the United States

Boruff¹,

Easoz²,

Jones³

et al. 2003

Clim. Res.

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Losses from all natural hazards have increased steadily over the past 3 decades and a continuous cycle of Presidential disaster declarations was generated as communities rebuilt and recovered from these often devastating events. Using a 50 yr record, this paper examines the temporal variability and spatial distribution of tornado hazards in the United States. Tornado hazards are defined very specifically as any reported tornado that resulted in human injury, human fatality, or some amount of economic loss. The results suggest that, while the actual number of tornadoes (tornado segments) doubled over the entire time period, there was a smaller overall increase in the number of tornado hazards from 1950 to 2000. The ratio of tornado hazards to all tornadoes has remained relatively constant since the 1960s. There has been a steady decline in fatalities and reductions in injuries caused by tornado hazards. Losses are more variable over the past 50 yr, but the 1990s showed near record lows, in terms of both total dollar losses and mean losses per tornado hazard event. The statistical center of tornado hazard activity is in south-central Missouri, southeast of the statistical center of tornadoes identified by previous research. The density of tornado hazards has expanded outward from the historic 'Tornado Alley' region. The distribution of other high-density regions suggests additional tornado hazard regions in Florida, the lower Mississippi Valley, the Gulf Coast, and in the Carolinas. KEY WORDS: Tornado hazards · GIS · Spatial variation · Temporal trends Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisherClim Res 24: [103][104][105][106][107][108][109][110][111][112][113][114][115][116][117] 2003 from these natural events. Three questions guide our analysis: (1) Are tornado hazards more frequent now than in the past? (2) Has the tornado hazard shifted geographically during the past 50 yr? (3) What specific regions have seen an increase in tornado hazards during the past half-century? DEFINING TORNADO HAZARDSIn our usage, tornado hazard has a very distinctive meaning, and clearly should not be confused with tornado climatology. Tornado hazard encompasses some aspects of tornado climatology, but also includes the effect of these events on people and the built environment. While numerous studies on tornado climatology have examined tornado frequencies (Schaefer et al. 1980, Grazulis 1993, Golden 1999, to date there is no comprehensive analysis of both tornadoes and their social impacts on a national scale. We define the tornado hazard as any tornado that results in a human fatality, or a human injury, or any amount of reported economic damage. We are guided in this approach by the natural-hazards literature, which defines a natural hazard as the interaction between physical systems and human-use systems that produces a 'loss' (White & Haas 1975, Burton et al. 1993. If a tornado occurs and is reported, but there is no recorded human injury, fatality, or economic loss, then it does...

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Section: Establishing the Tornado Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Establishing the Tornado Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Locational Vulnerabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Tornado hazards in the United States

Boruff¹,

Easoz²,

Jones³

et al. 2003

Clim. Res.

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“…The underlying philosophy is that, ENSO is not directly responsible for the formation of individual thunderstorms, however, the formation of thunderstorms is directly related to synoptic flow patterns. For instance, near surface air masses could be linked to mid-tropospheric flow patterns (Schwartz and Skeeter, 1994 Schaefer and Livingston, 1993) report deficiencies in this dataset (such as, geographical biases as well as an increase in reported tornadoes with time due to increasing population and awareness). However, the dataset represents the most reliable accounting of severe weather occurrence available over the United States (Bieringer et al, 1996).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mesoclimatic analysis of severe weather and ENSO interactions in North Carolina

Rhome

Niyogi

Raman

2000

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Data regarding U.S. tornadoes are now much more reliable and complete than ever before (Burgess, Donaldson, and Desrochers 1993; Schaefer et al 1993; Grazulis 2001). Several factors account for the improvement in the tornado report database.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Tornado Path Direction*

Suckling

Ashley

2006

The Professional Geographer

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Common perception is that tornadoes travel in paths from the southwest quadrant of directions toward the northeast. This study examines path directions for 6,194 tornadoes that occurred in the eastern two‐thirds of the United States during the twenty‐three‐year period 1980–2002. At the national scale, nearly 70 percent of tornadoes included in the study propagated from the west, west‐southwest, and southwest, with west‐southwest being the highest frequency origin direction. Nevertheless, distinct seasonal and regional variations were found. In central and northern areas of the country, a more westerly or northwesterly path origin prevails during late spring and summer. The midtropospheric flow, convective typology, and synoptic patterns of tornado outbreaks are thought to contribute to the distributions observed in the climatology.

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The stability of climatological tornado data

Cited by 9 publications

References 6 publications

Tornado hazards in the United States

Tornado hazards in the United States

Mesoclimatic analysis of severe weather and ENSO interactions in North Carolina

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Tornado Path Direction*

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