The Spillover Effects of Conflict on Economic Growth in Neighbouring Countries in Africa

Groot, Olaf J. de

doi:10.1080/10242690903570575

Cited by 59 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…The results of Ghosh(2010) show that public school districts respond positively to the expenditure decisions of neighboring districts. Unfortunately, the negative effect of neighbors might be perceived as Bthy Neighbor's Curse^by some scholars (De Groot 2010;Easterly and Levine 1998;Ades and Chua 1997) and the results of Ades and Chua(1997) suggest the existence of negative spillovers among politically unstable neighboring countries. To all those scholars, though they can't reach a consensus on the direction of regional effect on policy diffusion, all of them admit that neighbors do matter when policy diffuses.…”

Section: Literature Review and Theoretical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 92%

Spatial Diffusion of Social Policy in China: Spatial Convergence and Neighborhood Interaction of Vocational Education

2015

Appl. Spatial Analysis

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There has been a vast amount of discussion about the positive and negative regional effect on policy diffusion. During this debate, the role of neighborhood structure is ignored and the linear assumption is still prevailing in this field. By analyzing the spatial convergence of local vocational education development with data of 31 provinces from 1995 to 2008 in China, we explore the effects of neighborhood interactions on policy diffusion, paying specific attention to the dynamical role of neighborhood structures in policy diffusion. The empirical results clearly indicate that the development of local vocational education systems in China is spatially autocorrelated to the neighboring provinces. Local vocational education systems converge more slowly if a spatially lagged dependent variable is introduced, while they converge faster if a spatially error variable is introduced. The policy transition between neighbors considering their local spatial context is analyzed with Spatial Markov Chain and a fundamental nonlinear connection between neighborhood structure and policy transition is unveiled. Using spatial econometric models, we also find that the sociospatial diffusion patterns with the social factors such as consumption, urban/rural distribution and occupation serve as barriers to and amplifiers of policy diffusion. These results not only resonate with conventional linear wisdom on policy diffusion but also offer a new nonlinear perspective on socio-spatial patterns of policy diffusion that are clearly embedded within the local neighborhood structures.

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Section: Literature Review and Theoretical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 92%

Spatial Diffusion of Social Policy in China: Spatial Convergence and Neighborhood Interaction of Vocational Education

2015

Appl. Spatial Analysis

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“…Empirically he finds that after a 15-year war, the post-war growth rate is enhanced by 5.9 per cent per annum. Later papers find similar effects, and also study the spillover effects on neighboring countries and trading partners (Asteriou and Price 2001;Azam et al 2002;Bayer and Rupert 2004;Bozzoli et al 2010;Butkiewicz and Yanikkaya 2005a;Carmignani 2003;De Groot 2010;Fosu 2003;Gyimah-Brempong and Corley 2005;Kang and Meernik 2005;Koubi 2005;Murdoch and Sandler 2002). (Dell et al 2008;Fankhauser and Tol 2005) study the impact of climate change on economic growth.…”

Section: Conflict and Growthmentioning

confidence: 98%

Civil war, climate change, and development: A scenario study for sub-Saharan Africa

Devitt

Tol

2012

Journal of Peace Research

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Abstract: We construct a model of development, civil war, and climate change. There are multiple interactions. Economic growth reduces the probability of civil war and the vulnerability to climate change. Climate change increases the probability of civil war. The impacts of climate change, civil war, and civil war in the neighbouring countries reduce economic growth. The model has two potential poverty traps -a climate-change-induced one and a civil-war-induced one -and the two poverty traps may reinforce one another. We calibrate the model to Sub-Saharan Africa and conduct a double Monte Carlo analysis accounting for both parameter uncertainty and stochasticity. We find the following. Although we use the SRES scenarios as our baseline, and thus assume rapid economic growth in Africa and convergence of African living standards to the rest of the world, the impact of civil war and climate change (ignored in SRES) are sufficiently strong to keep a number of countries in Africa in deep poverty with a high probability. Other countries enjoy exponential growth; and some countries may either be trapped in poverty or experience rapid growth. The SRES scenarios were wrong to ignore the impact of climate change and civil war on economic development. Terms of use: Documents in

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“…Their results suggest that the effects on negative growth effects from nearby civil wars appear to arise more from the more direct implications of conflict such as uncertainty and the direct disruption of economic activity than an impact of the destruction of human or physical capital on growth. De Groot (2010) provides a reanalysis with some reservations against their interpretation, and suggests that civil wars have two distinct consequences for neighboring countries. Whereas directly contiguous countries tend to suffer from the negative effects of proximate conflict, noncontiguous countries can sometimes see positive spillover of conflict, perhaps reflecting a substitution effect.…”

Section: The Transnational Causes Of Civil Warsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Civil War from a Transnational Perspective

Gleditsch¹

2017

Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics

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Summary: Civil war is the dominant form of armed conflict in the contemporary international system, and most severe lethal armed conflicts in the post-Cold War era have been civil rather than interstate. Still, it would misleading to see these conflicts as purely domestic, as many contemporary civil wars such as Syria display clear transnational characteristics, including inspirations from events in other countries, links to actors in other countries, as well as often international interventions. Moreover, civil wars often have important implications for other states, including security concerns and economic impacts.This chapter reviews the growth and core findings in the literature focusing on the transnational dimensions of civil war. I focus in particular on how factors outside a particular state can influence the risk of conflict within states as well as some of the central consequences of domestic conflict for other states or relations between states. I conclude that this line of research has helped expand our understanding of both civil conflict and interstate war, and that a comparative focus on varieties conflict and attention to the possible transnational dimensions of civil war deserve a prominent role in future research.

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The Spillover Effects of Conflict on Economic Growth in Neighbouring Countries in Africa

Cited by 59 publications

References 22 publications

Spatial Diffusion of Social Policy in China: Spatial Convergence and Neighborhood Interaction of Vocational Education

Spatial Diffusion of Social Policy in China: Spatial Convergence and Neighborhood Interaction of Vocational Education

Civil war, climate change, and development: A scenario study for sub-Saharan Africa

Civil War from a Transnational Perspective

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