The Spatiotemporal Estimation of the Dynamic Risk and the International Transmission of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak: A Global Perspective

Lin, Yuwan; Chi, Wan-Ju; Lin, Yu-Ting; Lai, Chun-Yeh

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3543583

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…The coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, originally occurred from Wuhan, China, in December 2019 has caused a global pandemic in March 2020 [1, 2]. Regions in East Asia, such as Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea and Japan, all faced an extremely high risk of community outbreak due to a massive number of travellers from Mainland China during the Chinese new year [3, 4]. However, comparing to many other countries until now (March 2020), the coronavirus outbreak was still considered limited in Hong Kong and Taiwan [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effectiveness of quarantine measure on transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Hong Kong

Yuan

Hân

et al. 2020

Preprint

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The rapid expansion of COVID-19 has caused a global pandemic. Although quarantine measures have been used widely, the critical steps among them to suppress the outbreak without a huge social-economic loss remain unknown. Hong Kong, unlike other regions in the world, had a massive number of travellers from Mainland China during the early expansion period, and yet the spread of virus has been relatively limited. Understanding

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effectiveness of quarantine measure on transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Hong Kong

Yuan

Hân

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus was first identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, and was declared a global pandemic in March 2020 [1–3]. Regions in East Asia, such as Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea and Japan, all faced an extremely high risk of community outbreaks due to the massive influx of travellers from mainland China to these countries during the Lunar New Year festival in January 2020 [4, 5]. Both Hong Kong and Taiwan have been thought to have the highest risk of COVID-19 outbreaks outside mainland China, however, compared to many other countries, the size of the outbreaks in these regions could still be considered limited up until now (April 2020) [6], suggesting that initial intervention policies have been successful [7, 8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The importance of the timing of quarantine measures before symptom onset to prevent COVID-19 outbreaks - illustrated by Hong Kong’s intervention model

Yuan

Han

Yuan

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background: The rapid expansion of the current COVID-19 outbreak has caused a global pandemic but how quarantine-based measures can prevent or suppress an outbreak without other more intrusive interventions has not yet been determined. Hong Kong had a massive influx of travellers from mainland China, where the outbreak began, during the early expansion period coinciding with the Lunar New Year festival; however, the spread of the virus has been relatively limited even without imposing severe control measures, such as a full city lockdown.Understanding how quarantine measures in Hong Kong were effective in limiting community spread can provide us with valuable insights into how to suppress an outbreak. However, challenges exist in evaluating the effects of quarantine on COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Hong Kong due to the fact that the effects of border control have to be also taken into account.Methods: We have developed a two-layered susceptible-exposed-infectious-quarantined-recovered (SEIQR) meta-population model which can estimate the effects of quarantine on virus transmissibility after stratifying infections into imported and subsequent community infections, in a region closely connected to the outbreak's source. We fitted the model to both imported and local confirmed case data with symptom onset from 18 January to 29 February 2020 in Hong Kong, together with daily transportation data and the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 from Wuhan and mainland China. After model fitting, epidemiological parameters and the timing of the start of quarantine for infected cases were estimated. Results: The model estimated that the reproduction number of COVID-19 in Hong Kong was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.66 to 0.86), achieved through quarantining infected cases -0.57 days (95% CI, -4.21 -3.88) relative to symptom onset, with an estimated incubation time of 5.43 days (95% CI, 1.30 -9.47). However, if delaying the quarantine start by more than 1.43 days, the reproduction number would be greater than one, making community spread more likely. The model also determined the timing of the start of quarantine necessary in order to suppress an outbreak in the presence of population immunity. Conclusion:The results suggest that the early quarantine for infected cases before symptom onset is a key factor to prevent COVID-19 outbreak.

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The Spatiotemporal Estimation of the Dynamic Risk and the International Transmission of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak: A Global Perspective

Cited by 2 publications

References 3 publications

Effectiveness of quarantine measure on transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Hong Kong

Effectiveness of quarantine measure on transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Hong Kong

The importance of the timing of quarantine measures before symptom onset to prevent COVID-19 outbreaks - illustrated by Hong Kong’s intervention model

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