Studies have documented many biophysical factors that are correlated with urban forest carbon storage. This urban forest function is also increasingly being promoted as a nature-based solution for cities. While urbanization affects both the structure and function of urban forest ecosystems, quantitative analyses of specific casual drivers of carbon storage in urban versus peri-urban forests are scarce. To address this lack of information, we used field data of random plots located along an urban to rural gradient in Shanghai, China, region-specific biomass equations, and path analysis of commonly studied urban forest socioeconomic and ecological drivers to analyze their effects on above ground tree carbon storage. An urbanization index was also developed to quantitatively differentiate urban from peri-urban sites along the transect. Results show that in both urban and peri-urban forests, percent tree and shrub cover had a significant and positive effect on tree and shrub carbon, but tree and shrub density had an even greater effect. Further, tree and shrub species diversity had no effects on carbon storage, while the effects of species composition on tree and shrub carbon in urban forests was different from those in peri-urban areas. Peri-urban forests also exhibited a significant effect of percent tree and shrub cover on tree and shrub species diversity. This approach, using a path analysis of field and plot data and site-specific dendrometric and urbanization information, can be used to quantitatively identify little explored causal dependences between drivers and ecosystem services without relying exclusively on spatial land cover data often not available in developing countries.Keywords: urban to rural gradient; climate change; nature-based solutions; path analysis
IntroductionUrban forests are the sum of all trees, shrubs, and palms present in a city and are a key nature-based solution for mitigating climate change effects and providing other ecosystem services [1][2][3]. Forests and plant communities in peri-urban contexts are also increasingly experiencing disturbance through urbanizations and alteration of their composition, soils, and biogeochemical cycles [4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. Indeed, the structure, function and subsequent ecosystem services from urban forests are highly influenced by land use change and human decisions [11,12]. Urban forests and their ecosystem functions across the forested biomes of the world play an important role in the local urban and global carbon cycles; yet they can be directly and indirectly influenced by multiple factors including tree composition, urban forest structure, and related growth, mortality, and carbon emissions from decomposition and maintenance activities [2,3,[13][14][15][16]. However, given the heterogeneity of urban Sustainability 2017, 9, 577; doi:10.3390/su9040577www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability Sustainability 2017, 9, 577 2 of 17 forests, quantitative causal analyses or identification of key indicators and drivers influencing carbon storage i...