The spatial extent of hydrological and landscape changes across the mountains and prairies of Canada in the Mackenzie and Nelson River basins based on data from a warm-season time window

Whitfield, Paul H.; Kraaijenbrink, Philip; Shook, Kevin; Pomeroy, John W.

doi:10.5194/hess-25-2513-2021

Cited by 6 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 123 publications

(193 reference statements)

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“…The cryosphere, which encompasses glaciers, snow, frozen soil, and permafrost, plays a vital role in storing approximately 75% of the world's freshwater resources, while around 17% of the global population resides in cryosphere regions (Qin et al, 2021). Understanding the changes occurring in the cryosphere is crucial for assessing the long-term sustainability of water resources (Whitfield et al, 2021). The Hulu catchment, located in the northeast Tibet Plateau, exhibits a diverse distribution of cryosphere elements, making it an ideal area for studying these changes (Gao et al, 2019;Xu et al, 2019).…”

Section: Changes Of the Mountain Cryosphere In Futurementioning

confidence: 99%

Projected future changes in cryosphere and hydrology of a mountainous catchment in the Upper Heihe River, China

Chang,

Gao,

Yong

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Abstract. Climate warming exacerbates the degradation of the mountain cryosphere, including glacier retreat, reduction in snow cover area, and permafrost degradation. These changes dramatically alter the local and downstream hydrological regime, posing significant threats to basin-scale water resource management and sustainable development. However, there is still a lack of systematic research that evaluates the variation of cryospheric elements in mountainous catchments and their impacts on future hydrology and water resources. In this study, we developed an integrated cryospheric-hydrologic model, referred to as the FLEX-Cryo model. This model comprehensively considers glaciers, snow cover, frozen soil, and their dynamic impacts on hydrological processes in the mountainous Hulu catchment located in the Upper Heihe river of China. We utilized the state-of-the-art climate change projection data from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to simulate the future changes in the mountainous cryosphere and their impacts on hydrology. Our findings showed that the two glaciers in the Hulu catchment will completely melt out around the years 2045–2051. By the end of the 21st century, the annual maximum snow water equivalent is projected to decrease by 41.4 % and 46.0 %, while the duration of snow cover will be reduced by approximately 45 and 70 days. The freeze onset of seasonal frozen soil is expected to be delayed by 10 and 22 days, while the thaw onset of permafrost is likely to advance by 19 and 32 days. Moreover, the maximum freeze depth of seasonal frozen soil is projected to decrease by 5.2 and 10.9 cm per decade, and the depth of the active layer will increase by 8.2 and 15.5 cm per decade. Regarding hydrology, runoff exhibits a decreasing trend until the complete melt-out of glaciers, resulting in a total runoff decrease of 15.6 % and 18.1 %. Subsequently, total runoff shows an increasing trend, primarily due to an increase in precipitation. Permafrost degradation causes the duration of low runoff in the early thawing season to decrease, and the discontinuous baseflow recession gradually transitions into linear recessions, leading to an increase in baseflow. Our results highlight the significant changes expected in the mountainous cryosphere and hydrology in the future. These findings enhance our understanding of cold-region hydrological processes and have the potential to assist local and downstream water resource management in addressing the challenges posed by climate change.

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Section: Changes Of the Mountain Cryosphere In Futurementioning

confidence: 99%

Projected future changes in cryosphere and hydrology of a mountainous catchment in the Upper Heihe River, China

Chang,

Gao,

Yong

et al. 2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…The influence of recent climate, historical climate change and how this interacts with Prairie biogeophysical features and wetland drainage to influence basin hydrology behaviour was recently explored by Whitfield et al (2021). They showed the coherence between climate effects and biogeophysical and drainage effects on basin classification.…”

Section: Basin Classificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing hydrological sensitivity of grassland basins in the Canadian Prairies to climate using a basin classification-based virtual modelling approach

Spence

Shook

et al. 2022

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Significant challenges from changes in climate and land use face sustainable water use in the Canadian Prairies ecozone. The region has experienced significant warming since the mid-20th century, and continued warming of an additional 2 ∘C by 2050 is expected. This paper aims to enhance understanding of climate controls on Prairie basin hydrology through numerical model experiments. It approaches this by developing a basin-classification-based virtual modelling framework for a portion of the Prairie region and applying the modelling framework to investigate the hydrological sensitivity of one Prairie basin class (High Elevation Grasslands) to changes in climate. High Elevation Grasslands dominate much of central and southern Alberta and parts of south-western Saskatchewan, with outliers in eastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba. The experiments revealed that High Elevation Grassland snowpacks are highly sensitive to changes in climate but that this varies geographically. Spring maximum snow water equivalent in grasslands decreases 8 % ∘C−1 of warming. Climate scenario simulations indicated that a 2 ∘C increase in temperature requires at least an increase of 20 % in mean annual precipitation for there to be enough additional snowfall to compensate for enhanced melt losses. The sensitivity in runoff is less linear and varies substantially across the study domain: simulations using 6 ∘C of warming, and a 30 % increase in mean annual precipitation yields simulated decreases in annual runoff of 40 % in climates of the western Prairie but 55 % increases in climates of eastern portions. These results can be used to identify those areas of the region that are most sensitive to climate change and highlight focus areas for monitoring and adaptation. The results also demonstrate how a basin classification-based virtual modelling framework can be applied to evaluate regional-scale impacts of climate change with relatively high spatial resolution in a robust, effective and efficient manner.

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Projections of rain‐on‐snow events in a sub‐arctic river basin under 1.5°C–4°C global warming

Warden,

Rezvani,

Najafi

et al. 2024

Hydrological Processes

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Rain‐on‐snow (ROS) is a compound hydrometeorological extreme event that can lead to severe socioeconomic impacts and affect ecosystem function. In high‐latitude regions, the percolation of liquid precipitation through snowpack and the associated formation of ice layers can create greater potential for significant runoff and also cause hardship for wintertime ungulate foraging. In this study, we assess the characteristics of ROS events and the corresponding impacts over a large sub‐arctic river basin in northwestern Canada. We propose seven indices to assess the projected changes in both major and minor ROS events, defined as instances of 10 and 3 mm/day, respectively, of rainfall occurring on SWE greater than 5 mm, taking into account precipitation intensity and snowpack depth. We use simulations from the variable infiltration capacity hydrologic model driven by a suite of multivariate bias‐corrected global climate models from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and assess the ROS changes under the 1.5, 2, 3 and 4°C global warming levels above the pre‐industrial period. Overall, ROS events occur more frequently in October–December and January–March (JFM) compared to other seasons. The effects of major and minor ROS events on runoff generation in JAS and OND are considerable at higher elevations, with mean runoff more than 50% greater on ROS days than non‐ROS days in many cases. Furthermore, the analyses project notable increases in the frequency of both Major and Minor ROS events in all summer and fall. However, a notable decrease in ROS frequency is present in spring, and in winter, ROS frequency has inconsistent changes. Our comprehensive assessment of ROS events, their projected changes, and associated impacts in a sub‐arctic river basin underscore these events' critical role in shaping hydrological patterns and affecting communities, infrastructure and ecosystem dynamics.

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The spatial extent of hydrological and landscape changes across the mountains and prairies of Canada in the Mackenzie and Nelson River basins based on data from a warm-season time window

Cited by 6 publications

References 123 publications

Projected future changes in cryosphere and hydrology of a mountainous catchment in the Upper Heihe River, China

Projected future changes in cryosphere and hydrology of a mountainous catchment in the Upper Heihe River, China

Assessing hydrological sensitivity of grassland basins in the Canadian Prairies to climate using a basin classification-based virtual modelling approach

Projections of rain‐on‐snow events in a sub‐arctic river basin under 1.5°C–4°C global warming

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